Active for the Next Week in the Central US

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Multiple systems moving through the Central U.S. with chances for heavy rain through the middle of next week and overall good weather in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS FOR MIDWEST

The pattern will be more active in the Midwest through the middle of next week with a pair of systems moving across the region through Thursday, another bringing in showers over the weekend, and two more systems bringing widespread rainfall early-to-mid next week. While drought has been increasing over the last couple of months, the active pattern may help to reduce drought in some areas. However, turning the momentum will be tough to accomplish and this busier period will not eliminate drought or the concerns for building soil moisture before the ground freezes.

SEVERAL STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

An active pattern is in place across the Central and Southern Plains through the middle of next week with multiple systems and fronts bringing scattered showers throughout much of the region. The rain may increase soil moisture, but the likelihood of getting into the southwestern Plains HRW wheat areas is a bit uncertain. The active pattern may be more disruptive to the end of the harvest, though.

NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EDGE OF SYSTEMS

Several storm systems will pass through or near the Northern Plains through early next week. That could bring in some needed precipitation but may result in some snow in some spots. Drought is not likely to be eliminated in the more active pattern, but some lucky areas that get hit multiple times could see soil moisture building. Temperatures will likely be fluctuating quite a bit in the more active pattern.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW DESPITE COMING RAIN

Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be extremely low, causing restrictions on transportation. The pattern is much more active in the Mississippi River Basin for the next week, but there is widespread drought throughout most of it and it will be tough to turn around. Some small improvements to river levels will be possible, though.

CENTRAL BRAZIL CONTINUES TO SEE GOOD RAINFALL

Wet season showers continue in Central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Reports from Mato Grosso of rapid planting progress have meant that producers there have almost caught up to the normal pace and the continued good weather should allow that to persist this week as well. The likelihood of a significant portion of the crop being planted late has fallen dramatically. Southern areas are going through a drier period, with more limited showers over the next week. Conditions there may fall a bit, but they can handle a drier stretch as long as it does not last too long.

RAIN RETURNING TO ARGENTINA

Drier conditions continue for one more day in Argentina. However, the pattern looks to become more favorable again with showers starting in the west on Thursday and more systems moving through this weekend and next week, bringing periods of needed showers through. Corn establishment has gotten much better and soybean planting will start this week or next in mostly good conditions as well.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE

Heavy rain fell from northeast Spain to northwest Italy over the weekend, including over some areas that had flooding occur over the last couple of weeks. That has promoted poor conditions for fieldwork and winter grain establishment, but has moistened soils quite a bit that could be a net benefit. The responsible system continues to spin around Spain this week, which will help producers on the Iberian Peninsula see increasing soil moisture for their winter grains. More limited showers are forecast for the rest of the continent through next week. The lack of heavy rain will be helpful in the northwest, but those in the east would still like to see some rain as it starts to dry out in more areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A few systems will move through Australia over the next couple of weeks, but with limited precipitation in the forecast. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola. The momentum is toward drier soils, though. With harvest starting up in the north, the time for rain to be beneficial is coming to an end, but would help out the coming cotton and sorghum crops that will be planted in November.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com