Active Weather Continues as Pattern Changes

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — An active pattern for the U.S. with areas of heavy rain and severe storms, poor weather in western Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RAIN CONTINUES FOR MIDWEST

Bursts of showers and thunderstorms moved through the Midwest on Tuesday, were heavy in spots, and included severe weather. Recent rainfall has been too heavy in many areas, slowing down or halting planting. Another system goes through Wednesday and Thursday that may have severe weather as well. It will also bring some colder air into the region, but frost is not expected. Temperatures will likely waffle a bit through next week as the pattern remains active with fronts and systems. However, these systems are less likely to contain widespread heavy rain as they come from the northwest.

QUIETER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL WEEKEND

Some isolated showers will pop up in the Central and Southern Plains for the rest of the week, but many areas will remain dry, which will help open some brief planting windows for areas that have had some heavy rain lately. Wheat conditions in the southwest are still not great, even after some decent rainfall over the weekend. But the southern storm track may be more active starting this weekend and continuing through next week, which may promote some better rainfall chances there.

HEAVY RAIN WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system that has settled in the Northern Plains has brought rainfall to most of the region through Wednesday and has included some heavy amounts for the driest areas in eastern Montana. The rain will keep any fieldwork slow. Additional fronts will follow afterward through next week but contain fewer showers as planting windows will open up again. Temperatures will waffle around as these fronts come and go.

MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN FOR DELTA

A couple of fronts moving through the Delta this week are bringing more chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather. Another will go through early next week as the pattern remains active across the region. The active weather will ensure good soil moisture for the next week but may be too wet in some areas for planting. The region continues to see good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions, however.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system brought areas of heavy and widespread rainfall to the Canadian Prairies that are winding down here on Wednesday. Parts of northwestern Alberta stayed dry, but heavy rain in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan was needed as it continues to sit in significant drought. The rain will produce significant planting delays. The good news is that this may be the last system with widespread heavy rain, though the pattern remains active through next week. The rain should be more favorable than detrimental.

FRONT EXACERBATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Recent heavy rain over Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil has produced catastrophic flooding over the last week. The front responsible for the incredible rain is shifting back north again on Wednesday and likely waffle around the state again next week. Flooding, mudslides and crop damage are all putting a damper on what was a pretty good crop season and making for massive delays in winter wheat planting. Safrinha corn in the central will continue to be very dry and hot as well. Southern corn areas may catch some of the rain from the front later next week.

FROST POTENTIAL FOR ARGENTINA

A front that shifted south into Argentina this week will be pushed back north into Paraguay and Brazil on Wednesday. Colder and drier conditions will follow that. That may be able to increase corn and soybean harvest but may mean widespread frosts for any immature crops for several days going into next week. The drier pattern lasts through at least next week.

CONTINUED WETNESS IN WESTERN EUROPE

A system that moved back into western Europe over the weekend with more unfortunate rainfall for areas that have been mostly too wet has moved into the southeast with briefly drier conditions taking over. Another system will move into western areas on Sunday and could settle in there for a while, keeping wetter conditions going for the UK and France.

LIMITED SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FROST FOR BLACK SEA

It is still very dry in most of the primary wheat areas of the Black Sea region. That has made smooth planting progress for corn and sunflowers but threatens all crops with building dryness. A front is sliding through with little precipitation Wednesday, but frosts are going to be common across northern areas of the region. Some damage may occur, though the coldest air will be over less developed wheat. Cold air will stick around through most of next week. The pattern does look a little more active this weekend into next week, but currently, the forecast is for streaks of lighter rain, and not the turnaround of moderate to heavy rain that the region needs.

MORE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system will bring scattered showers to New South Wales in eastern Australia on Friday and Saturday, which will help with winter wheat and canola establishment. While planting conditions have been pretty smooth, establishment weather hasn’t been all that great outside of New South Wales. The hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino fades and La Nina takes over in the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com