Active Weather for Corn Belt This Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — An active pattern for the U.S. and Canada, especially through the Corn Belt, wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

ACTIVE STORM TRACK THROUGH MIDWEST

Isolated showers went through the Midwest over the weekend with some areas of dryness being favorable for getting some planting done. Two systems will make that more difficult early this week as they rip through the region with areas of heavy rain. That may induce some flooding in the northwest. The front to the second system will settle somewhere near the Ohio River and stay active for the rest of the week. Additional systems will move through the region this weekend and especially early next week that leave planting windows short or closed for another week.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers went through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend with some severe storms on Sunday that may have damaged wheat. Multiple systems will go through the region over the next week with heavy rain both north and east. Southwestern areas that continue to deal with drought are not forecast to see a lot of heavy rain, though thunderstorms that move through could bless some areas with heavier amounts. Temperatures will fluctuate with fronts moving through, but in general will be cooler across the northwest in Nebraska and warmer across the south.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING ACTIVE, TOO

Scattered showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend and several storm systems will move through over the course of the next week, making for areas of heavy rain. The active weather will make it difficult for planting in some areas, and cooler temperatures in place will stay that way into next week as well. Some frosts will not help with germinating crops either.

STORM TRACK NORTH OF DELTA, BUT STILL SOME SHOWERS

It was drier in the Delta over the weekend with increasing temperatures, which probably helped get some more planting done. The main storm track will be to the north this week, but a front will settle in the northern portions of the region mid to late week as thunderstorms move through with some heavy rain potential. Additional storm systems may go through this weekend and early next week that could get more of the region active as well.

COLD AND WET IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers and thunderstorms went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but it was notably drier through much of Saskatchewan and Alberta outside of the far north and south. A system that has wrapped up in the region will continue to develop precipitation in the region through Tuesday, but could linger some showers through Wednesday. The storm track favors to track farther south after that, but could sneak in some showers to southeastern areas Thursday and Friday and across the south this weekend. Any rain will continue to make planting progress slower, but also help to ease drought conditions as well.

ANOTHER FRONT CREATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front kept showers going over southern Brazil over the weekend, but moved north of flooded Rio Grande do Sul. Another front moves back into southern Brazil on Tuesday and especially on Wednesday with more bouts of heavy rain that will make flooding conditions worse again. That front shifts northward for Friday and the weekend, where showers may get into southern safrinha corn growing areas, favorable for any crop it rains on. That front may reload there early next week with some showers as well.

WIDESPREAD FROSTS IN ARGENTINA

Cold and dry conditions in Argentina over the weekend largely continue this week, though northeastern areas will see some showers with a front midweek. The cold will likely produce more frosts, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. But drier weather will increase the remaining corn and soybean harvest.

WESTERN EUROPE STAYING WET

A system continued to produce scattered showers over western Europe but also some central areas over the weekend. The wetter weather is unfavorable for wheat development that needs some sun and drier conditions. The system phases out, but the showers likely continue mid to late week. Smaller systems moving through the continent afterward should bring more gaps to the areas that are too wet while keeping showers in play for areas that are not, a much more favorable outlook than the continent has seen in a while if true.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

It was dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend, but temperatures rose and frosts are no longer a threat. Despite the more favorable temperatures, it continues to be very dry in the region and models are cutting back on the precipitation forecast for a couple of fronts moving through.

QUIETER WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

It was dry in Australia over the weekend and should be dry for most areas through this weekend as well. A few systems may move into the country next week as Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to trend toward a favorable La Nina scenario over the next several weeks.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com