Active Weather, Less Heavy Rain for US

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — An active pattern for the U.S. with improvements in the remaining drought, poor weather in western Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SHOWERS A LITTLE MORE ISOLATED FOR MIDWEST

Recent rainfall has been too heavy in a lot of areas of the Midwest, slowing down or halting planting. Temperatures will likely waffle a bit through next week as the pattern remains active with fronts and systems. However, these systems are less likely to contain widespread heavy rain as they come from the northwest outside of a system that goes through southern areas Monday and Tuesday, which may bring some heavy rain to areas that just saw a lot. Other areas may still get heavy rain, or at least enough to keep planting at a slower pace than optimal, too.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SEE ANOTHER STORM THIS WEEKEND

Drier conditions over the last several days in the Central and Southern Plains will help open some planting windows for areas that have had some heavy rain lately. Wheat conditions in the southwest still are not great, even after some decent rainfall this past weekend. But the southern storm track may be more active starting this weekend and continuing through next week, which may promote some better rainfall chances there with a couple of storms that pass through. Areas farther north will see some rainfall as well, and models have increased the rainfall potential, especially across Kansas.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Recent heavy rain in the Northern Plains will keep any fieldwork slow for the next couple of days as soils recover. Additional fronts and systems will move across the region through next week but contain more isolated showers as planting windows will open back up again for most areas. Temperatures will waffle around as these fronts come and go.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR DELTA

Heavy rain and severe weather went across the Delta over the last couple of days. The region will stay active with another system for early next week and probably another for later next week. The active weather will ensure good soil moisture but may be too wet in some areas for further planting. However, the region continues to see good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system brought areas of heavy and widespread rainfall to the Canadian Prairies earlier this week. Parts of northwestern Alberta stayed dry, but heavy rain in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan was needed as it continues to sit in significant drought. The rain will produce significant planting delays, but the good news is that this may be the last system with widespread heavy rain for a while, even though the pattern remains active through next week. Systems moving through will have less moisture to work with and create more isolated showers than widespread heavy rain, allowing for some planting windows to open with time.

FRONT EXACERBATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Recent heavy rain over Rio Grande do Sul has produced catastrophic flooding over the last two weeks. The front responsible for the rain has shifted back into the area and will waffle around the state yet again through Monday. Flooding, mudslides and crop damage are all putting a damper on what was a pretty good crop season and making for massive delays in winter wheat planting. Safrinha corn in the central will continue to be very dry and hot as well. Southern corn areas may catch some of the rain from the front later next week.

WIDESPREAD FROST IN ARGENTINA

A front was pushed back north into Paraguay and Brazil. Colder and drier conditions continue in Argentina behind it through next week. That may be able to increase corn and soybean harvest, and winter wheat planting somewhat, but may mean widespread frosts for any immature crops.

ANOTHER STORM KEEPING WESTERN EUROPE WET

Briefly, drier conditions are taking over Europe for the next few days. But another system will move into western areas on Sunday and could settle in there for a while, keeping wetter conditions going for the UK and France. The system pushes east later next week with widespread rain.

LIMITED SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FROST FOR BLACK SEA

It is still very dry in most of the primary growing areas of the Black Sea region. That has made smooth planting progress for corn and sunflowers but threatens all crops with building dryness. Frosts have been and continue to be common across northern areas of the region going into next week. Some damage may occur, though the coldest air will be over less-developed wheat in the northeast. The pattern does look a little more active this weekend into next week, but currently, the forecast is for streaks of lighter rain for most areas, and not the turnaround moderate to heavy rain that the region needs. Some heavier rain may occur across far southern Russia near the Caucuses, though.

MORE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system continues to bring scattered showers to New South Wales in eastern Australia through Saturday, which will help with winter wheat and canola establishment. Dry conditions follow for most areas through next week. While planting conditions have been smooth, establishment weather hasn’t been all that great outside of New South Wales. The hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino fades and La Nina takes over in the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com