Active Weather Pattern Continues This Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — An active pattern for the Central U.S. with heavy rain and severe storms, poor weather in Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil and heavy rain in northern Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MORE RAIN COMING FOR MIDWEST

Two storm systems moved through the Midwest over the weekend, bringing heavy rain to the southwest and some severe weather. The second system continues through Monday. The pattern stays active and the gap between storms remains short as another will move through western areas Tuesday with another across the region for Wednesday-Friday and another eyeing the region for early next week. Long-term deficits are being eroded quickly in some areas like Missouri, but wet field conditions are going to slow planting down quite a bit. Not all areas are getting heavy rain though and may find some gaps between thunderstorms to continue working. Water is likely to be needed for the summer, which should be overall beneficial even if it delays planting.

STORMS TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain and severe storms littered the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, causing some areas of flooding and storm damage. Southwestern areas did not receive much precipitation, however. The pattern continues to be active with multiple storm systems moving through over the next two weeks, keeping planting slower and aiding soil moisture in many areas, though flooding may still be a concern. The southwest is not a favored location for getting precipitation this week as the weather continues to trend away from them and into others farther north and east. Wheat conditions are likely to fall in these drier areas.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and moderate rain fell across the Dakotas over the weekend, being much lighter in Montana. The region will be more widely active this week as a system moves through Monday night and Tuesday with another for Wednesday and Thursday and yet another this weekend. The active weather will make it difficult to get out into the field in some areas but help to ease the remaining drought and add soil moisture.

DELTA MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN ACTIVE PATTERN

Scattered showers went through the Delta over the weekend and a front is bringing heavier rain through on Monday. The region continues to be fairly wet but the gaps between rains have been longer than areas farther north and west. Even still, planting progress has been quick this spring. Scattered showers will be moving through at times though, and slow down additional progress.

DROUGHT CONTINUES IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES DESPITE ACTIVE STORM TRACK

Scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend but were not very widespread. An active pattern will bring multiple storm systems through the region over the next two weeks, which may help bring additional moisture over the expansive drought but slow planting progress and could contain some snow in the cooler air at times.

HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Much of the safrinha corn growing areas in central Brazil will be dry for the foreseeable future, though far northern areas may see some isolated showers at times. That means that it will also be hot, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in the midst of corn and soybean harvest in the far south, is seeing fronts waffle around in the region that will keep them wet through next week, disrupting the remaining harvest and making planting of winter wheat difficult. Those fronts may get into the far southern safrinha growing areas of Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul at times, but that is not forecast to amount to very much.

ACTIVE SHOWERS THROUGH ARGENTINA

A front will continue to waffle around northern Argentina through next week as disturbances move through the country. Those disturbances will bring occasional showers to southern areas but heavier rain farther north with the front. That will make corn and soybean harvest more difficult where the rain occurs. Cold air will build behind the front this week and may lead to frosts.

CONTINUED WETNESS IN WESTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers moved back through western Europe over the weekend, which is bad news for the UK and France which continue to be too wet, but favorable for Spain. A system will continue to spin in the region through much of the week, but eventually transfer showers across the south later this week. Another system is likely to go through the continent this weekend into next week with more rain. Temperatures will be generally warmer for the next week outside of Spain where it will be cooler. That largely flips for next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

Isolated showers fell in eastern Ukraine over the weekend, but most areas were unfavorably dry. The front that brought the showers moves through southwestern Russia for Monday and Tuesday but with limited showers. Southern areas may be blessed with more showers later this week and weekend, but recent trends have kept that farther south. A front will move through next week that could bring some cold temperatures. It might be cold enough for frost, but cooler temperatures would be beneficial for reducing moisture demand for dry soil.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

It was dry in Australia over the weekend. A system may bring some showers through western areas on Tuesday and Wednesday, and some showers may develop on the east coast. There is some potential for a system to make its way through eastern areas late this week and weekend, which would bring some beneficial rain if it does. Wheat planting continues to increase and the hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino continues its march toward La Nina over the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com