Another Active Week for US

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — An active pattern for the U.S. with areas of heavy rain and severe storms, poor weather in western Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WAVES OF RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system moved through the Midwest over the weekend and another moved across southern areas Sunday which continues on Monday. Some of these areas near and south of the Ohio River had been drier and the rain was not all that bad. But recent rainfall has been too heavy in a lot of areas, slowing down or halting planting. This week stays active with a strong front moving through late Monday and Tuesday, another system for Wednesday and Thursday, and the potential for another this weekend that may also contain widespread showers. The midweek system will bring some colder air into the region, but frosts are not expected. Temperatures will likely waffle a bit through next week as the pattern remains active with systems. However, these systems are less likely to contain widespread heavy rain.

SEVERE STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers went through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, including southwestern Kansas desperate for rain. A storm system entering the region on Monday will bring scattered showers, thunderstorms and a significant risk of severe weather. The showers may pass over those areas in the southwest that are still dry. A system this weekend may provide some showers in this area, though. Recent heavy rain in many areas has slowed planting progress and active weather this week should also do that. Storm systems after this coming weekend are still going to move through the region, but they are more likely to bring lower precipitation amounts, which may open up planting windows a little more.

HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through the Northern Plains this weekend, mostly far west and southeast. But a system moving into the region on Monday should bring widespread rainfall to most of the region this week, including some heavy amounts for the driest areas in eastern Montana. Showers will stick around through at least Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, keeping any fieldwork slow. Additional fronts will follow afterward but contain few showers as planting windows will open back up again. Temperatures will waffle around as these fronts come and go.

MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN FOR DELTA

Scattered showers went through the Delta over the weekend but were not as heavy as feared. A couple of fronts will move through this week with more chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for severe weather. Another will go through this weekend. The active weather will ensure good soil moisture for the next week but may be too wet in some areas for much planting.

HEAVY RAIN IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Showers continued in the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but another system moving into the region on Monday will bring widespread rainfall to most of the region outside of northwestern Alberta which will be drier. Heavy rain will fall in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan, which is still under significant drought and could use the rain. The rain will produce significant planting delays, however, shortening the windows for this year’s crop. The good news is that this may be the last system with widespread heavy rain, as the storm track will be more from the northwest for a while. The coming rain should be more favorable than detrimental.

DEVASTATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

More heavy rain fell over Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil over the weekend, adding to the catastrophic flooding that has taken place in the state over the last week. The front responsible for the incredible rain has moved south but will shift back north again on Wednesday and likely waffle around the state yet again into next week. Flooding, mudslides and crop damage are all putting a damper on what was a pretty good crop season and making for massive delays in winter wheat planting. Safrinha corn in the central will continue to be very dry and hot as well. Southern growing areas may catch some of the rain from the front across Rio Grande do Sul.

SOME FROST POTENTIAL FOR ARGENTINA

A front shifted back south into Argentina over the weekend, but much of the heavy rain has been east into Uruguay. A system will shove the front back north into Paraguay and Brazil by Wednesday. Colder and drier conditions will follow that. That may be able to increase corn and soybean harvest but may mean widespread frosts for any immature crops.

CONTINUED WETNESS IN WESTERN EUROPE

A system moved back into western Europe over the weekend with more unfortunate rainfall for areas that have been mostly too wet. The system will dip southeast through the continent this week with drier conditions taking over. Colder temperatures are going to be a feature for those in the east, but frosts are not in the forecast, that should occur in the Black Sea region. A front moving through this weekend could bring some scattered showers through again as well as another burst of cooler air to eastern areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FROST FOR BLACK SEA

A front did sag into far southern Russia this weekend, which brought some better showers to a limited area. It is still very dry in most of the primary wheat areas, however. That has made for smooth planting progress for corn and sunflowers but threatens the crop with building dryness. A front will slide through with little precipitation early this week, but frosts are going to be common across northern areas of the region. Some damage may occur, though the coldest air will be over less-developed wheat.

MORE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system brought scattered showers to New South Wales over the weekend, which will help with winter wheat and canola establishment. Another system may do something similar later this week. While planting conditions have been pretty smooth, establishment weather hasn’t been all that great. The hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino continues its march toward La Nina over the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com