Another Hurricane Headed for Gulf Coast

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent and forecast heavy rain moving through the Corn Belt, another hurricane headed through the Gulf of Mexico, and an eye toward the start of the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE MIDWEST

A front brought widespread showers and some areas of heavy rain to the Midwest this weekend. A low-pressure center developing on it will move through early this week with scattered showers then the region should go dry. However, an upper-level low stalling to the southwest will bring a hurricane up into the Southeast and it could get farther north into the region this weekend or next week and another front will likely move through with showers in the middle of next week. Harvest could be impacted by rain, though winter wheat areas would like to see the rain.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front and a system forming along it produced areas of heavy rain from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeast Kansas with more limited showers elsewhere in the Central and Southern Plains this weekend. An upper-level low will move into the region Tuesday and will get stuck, producing periods of showers, possibly into next week. The low will interact with a hurricane later this week and the forecast could be erratic. Temperatures will be more mild with the upper low moving in.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some showers moved across the Northern Plains with a front this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A few showers may move through Monday, but most areas will stay dry through the weekend, favorable for maturing crops. Some areas that are further behind would like to see some rain, however, and may find it with a front moving through early next week. After being milder this past weekend, temperatures will be warmer this week.

HURRICANE MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO DELTA

Most areas of the Delta were dry over the weekend with some limited showers across the north. But a system moving along a front into the region could bring some scattered showers the next day or two. An upper-level low will stall out in the region and pull up a hurricane later this week, which may bring in periods of heavy rain to the region. Any more bouts of heavy rain could further degrade the quality of soybeans and cotton in the region but would aid water levels on the Mississippi River.

SOUTHEAST PREPARING FOR ANOTHER HURRICANE

It was drier in the Southeast over the weekend. A front will move into the region later this week and a hurricane is forecasted to move north later this week as well. Though it should quickly dissipate from hurricane status as it moves into the region, its remnant low and another upper-level low will spin around just off to the west for several days afterward, which could keep showers in the region well into next week. Heavy rain would likely degrade the remaining crops out and North Carolina has been pummeled with heavy rainfall lately and would not benefit from any more.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system moved through the Canadian Prairies this weekend with widespread showers. A couple of little disturbances will move through this week and weekend, but the potential for significant rainfall is lower. Heavy rain from last week probably caused delays to the remaining harvest, however.

CENTRAL BRAZIL EYEING THE START OF THE WET SEASON

A front brought scattered showers to southern Brazil this weekend and another will stall over the far south early this week. Showers will finally move northward later in the week. The recent rainfall has been good for increasing soil moisture for spring planting, but some areas are still very dry. The front moving northward will start to produce showers for central Brazil and Mato Grosso especially by the weekend, kicking off the start of the wet season. However, with how hot and dry it has been over the last several months, producers will likely wait longer to start planting when the showers become more consistent later in October. If they have to wait too long, it could cause significant issues for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops.

ACTIVE BUT WITH LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

A front moved into Argentina over the weekend, but showers were largely relegated to eastern Buenos Aires, an area that has good soil moisture. Drought farther west and north has delayed corn planting and been damaging to developing reproductive winter wheat. That front will get stuck in northern areas, where showers may continue in the northeast, but most areas will stay dry. The next significant system would not come until early next week.

BIG SYSTEM FORECAST FOR EUROPE

A system developed across western Europe this weekend with scattered showers. The system works east with variable showers early this week but will be followed by a stronger system later this week. That will bring more widespread rainfall, strong winds and a burst of cooler air by the end of the week. Another system will be possible this weekend into next week. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture, but could delay winter wheat planting where heavy.

HOT AND DRY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have adequate soil moisture, but the majority of eastern Ukraine and western Russia have endured heat and drought for several months, poor conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment. A front will move into western areas late this week but may not produce much precipitation and fizzle out before reaching eastern areas. Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue to be unfavorable for wheat, which continues to have a limited time before frosts and freezes start to become more likely in October.

AUSTRALIA COULD USE SOME MORE RAIN

It continued to be dry in Australia over the weekend, unfavorable for vegetative to reproductive wheat and canola. A system will try to spread rainfall over eastern areas this week, which is needed. The system will bring through some cold air though and could cause frosts across the southeast, where crops are less developed but still vulnerable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com