Another Hurricane, Milton, Headed for Florida

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A dry forecast for most of the U.S., but another hurricane moving into Florida this week, and a big storm increasing rainfall for central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

DRIER FOR THE MIDWEST

A front that moved through the Midwest this weekend brought some briefly mild air, but above-normal temperatures are favored this week. A front will move through this weekend, bringing few showers to the Great Lakes, but a burst of colder air that could linger for eastern areas for several days, though western areas should warm right back up again. Conditions are mostly favorable for harvest, but not for winter wheat establishment in some areas that missed out on Helene’s rainfall.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm and dry conditions continue in the Central and Southern Plains through next week, being hot on occasion. That is favorable for corn and soybean harvest, but poor for winter wheat establishment. Rainfall two weeks ago has since dried up and the potential for precipitation is very low for the next couple of weeks, leading to poor wheat root establishment.

DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Continuous warm and dry weather is forecasted in the Northern Plains through next week, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans and harvest.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FALLING AGAIN

Dry weather continues in the Delta region for the next couple of weeks, favorable for harvest. But that is not the case for water levels on the Mississippi River, which had a very good boost due to Helene, but are forecast to drop low again next week, with a potential return to restrictive conditions for transportation.

SOUTHEAST DRY, FLORIDA EYES MILTON

A mostly dry forecast remains in place for the Southeast this week, with rainfall potential near the Gulf Coast but that is about it. Heavy rain will move through Florida Monday and Tuesday, with Hurricane Milton to move through on Wednesday night into Thursday, likely as a major hurricane that could cause devastation there.

RAINFALL INCREASING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEK

Wet season showers continue to be spotty in central Brazil. The late start of significant rain has caused a slow start to soybean planting. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks. A front will move up from Argentina into southern Brazil early this week with good rainfall, but this front will make it north into central Brazil with good rainfall that should finally have producers planting in earnest with the true start to the wet season coming. That will be about two weeks later, however, and puts a crunch on the safrinha corn and cotton crops when they get planted in early 2025.

NORTHERN ARGENTINA WINNING OUT WITH SOME RAIN

Dryness continues to be a major issue for producers throughout most of Argentina. A system did move in on Sunday and started to produce showers across the far north. Scattered showers will fill in over most of the northern half of the country early this week, but southern areas, and the state of Cordoba in particular, continue to miss out on the rainfall, with poor conditions for reproductive wheat and corn planting. Another front will move through southern areas late this week with extended showers into next week. Models are only producing streaks of rainfall for this area though, which needs heavy soaking rain instead. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that as well if rain doesn’t start picking up in the next couple of weeks.

MORE SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE

A system brought rain through eastern Europe over the weekend, favorable for moistening soils for winter wheat planting. Another system has moved into the west on Sunday, poised to bring rounds of showers to the continent over the course of the week. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting, which continues there this week.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION STILL VERY DRY

A system brought meaningful rain to western and central Ukraine over the weekend, but the system responsible will only produce isolated to scattered lighter showers for eastern Ukraine and western Russia as it passes through early this week. Eastern areas have had a terrible go with hot and dry conditions for months. Systems from Europe have not been able to penetrate farther eastward with the rainfall just yet. There is some indication that rainfall will increase next week, but that is starting to get awfully late for winter wheat establishment. Though temperatures have been and continue to be quite warm, the risk of frost will increase throughout the rest of the month, with a cooler shot moving into Russia this weekend. The window for planting with potential for good growing conditions is quickly shutting down.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Some isolated showers moved through eastern Australia over the weekend, but most areas saw only light rainfall or none at all. Dryness has been an issue in parts of the growing regions this spring. Some pockets of rain will move through this week, but the prospect for moderate soaking rains is very low.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com