Areas of Heavy Rain Coming for Corn Belt

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A burst of heavy rain moving through the Corn Belt this weekend and early next week, active weather in Argentina and southern Brazil, and an eye toward the start of the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAVY RAIN FOR MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

A front moved into the Midwest with scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers continue in eastern areas on Friday. A system will form along that front with more widespread showers this weekend into next week. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, most likely in the west. Temperatures remain warm, helping crops to dry down and mature where rain is lower in coverage and intensity. Increasing dryness and drought has not been favorable for the winter wheat crop that is just starting to be planted and could use the rain.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOME HEAVY RAIN

A front stalled out in the Central and Southern Plains has produced some areas of showers, which continue Friday. A low-pressure center will develop along it this weekend and produce more widespread and heavier precipitation, which may help with winter wheat establishment and any immature crops. But for those watching their crops mature or beginning harvest, it could cause some delays.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain this week in Montana should have helped with some of the drought in the region. Another system may bring a few showers this weekend, but it should be drier through next week with the next system being possible next weekend. Temperatures will be milder behind the system this weekend, but that is forecast to be short-lived with temperatures rising again next week.

DRY IN THE DELTA

Heavy rain last week has caused harvest delays and potential quality issues for mature soybeans and cotton in the Delta. Drought has been reduced in many areas, though. Any improvements on the Mississippi River have been limited and brief without significant precipitation farther upstream, especially in the Ohio Valley. The next significant chance for rain comes with a weak front moving through early next week. The rainfall farther north may help river levels. We will watch for a potential tropical storm to move into the Gulf of Mexico later next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system moved through the Canadian Prairies with widespread showers and areas of heavy rain over the last couple of days. Another system will move through Friday and Saturday with scattered showers. Recent and continued rain will disrupt the remaining harvest and drop quality for some wheat and canola. The rain will help with the ongoing drought, however.

CENTRAL BRAZIL EYEING THE START OF THE WET SEASON

Recent rainfall has been favorable for southern Brazil, allowing spring planting to increase. A front moving through will produce more showers through Saturday, but will not make it to the central states. More will be possible in the south with another front later next week. Central Brazil continues to be extremely dry, in some of the worst drought to start off a season in decades. Wet season rainfall may be on track to start on time at the end of next week with spotty showers in Mato Grosso, but producers are going to have to wait for consistent rains to begin planting, which may be pushed back deeper into October. In the increasing likelihood of that occurring, would put a crunch on the safrinha corn and cotton crops that will start to be planted in January and February.

ACTIVE BUT WITH LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Dry weather has been a common theme for the start of corn planting in Argentina, which has been significantly delayed already. A front will move through this weekend, bringing some rain into Buenos Aires, and then get stuck across northern areas with showers through a good portion of next week. That helps some areas up there, but southwestern areas are forecasted to remain very dry. The rainfall will need to be better for the western half of the country’s growing areas soon or further delays to corn planting will be likely and developing wheat will continue to suffer.

BIG SYSTEM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK IN EUROPE

A new system is forming in western Europe on Friday and continues with widespread showers moving eastward into next week, followed quickly by a much stronger system for mid-late next week that could be a strong fall storm with widespread rainfall, strong winds and a burst of cooler air. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture, but could delay winter wheat planting where heavy.

HOT AND DRY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Far western areas of the Black Sea region have seen meaningful rain lately while eastern Ukraine and western Russia in particular have been very hot and dry. Drought and heat are not making for very good conditions for winter wheat establishment, which has a very limited amount of time before frosts and freezes start to be a regular occurrence in October or early November. A more active pattern may start up later next week as a front moves in from Europe, though that is not guaranteed to bring in significant rainfall.

AUSTRALIA COULD USE SOME MORE RAIN

Some showers have been scraping through Victoria in far southeastern Australia this week, but most areas have stayed unfavorably dry. Additional rainfall is going to be needed with more of the crop reaching reproduction. A system may bring more widespread showers to eastern areas next week and a front may bring rainfall to western areas later in the week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com