Big Storm Potential for Next Week?

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent dry weather in the U.S., potential for some heavy rain next week, good rainfall across South America, but late soybean planting due to earlier dryness, and a drier stretch coming for Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST

A small disturbance moved through the Midwest on Tuesday with a few showers and a front is scraping across the north on Wednesday with a few more. A small system will move through on Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and small pockets of heavier rain potential. Though some showers will fall, it should not be heavy enough to build soil moisture, reduce drought, or disrupt harvest for too many areas. A storm system moving in next week could bring some waves of showers to the region that could be more meaningful, particularly across the western half.

BIG STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Despite some showers earlier this week, soil moisture continues to be quite low with widespread drought in the Central and Southern Plains. Harvest conditions have been very good though. A system will move into the region next week with a much better chance for pulses of showers to move through the region that could be more substantial. Models are working out that potential, however.

LOOKING FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front brought limited showers through the Northern Plains on Tuesday. Otherwise, dry conditions continue as drought keeps building. There is some potential for showers to develop with pulses of energy moving through next week, though models disagree on that potential. Some windy conditions at times could increase the fire risk again this week as well.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW

Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be low, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next week and questionable precipitation potential next week, restrictions could last a long time.

SOYBEAN PLANTING STILL BEHIND SCHEDULE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Producers have not been able to cover the gap from late planting of soybeans yet and they only have about a week left before the window closes. Rainfall has been good farther south as well, with much better progress on planting occurring there.

ARGENTINA TURNING DRIER

An overall wetter pattern lately has reduced drought and brought moisture for filling wheat and corn establishment in Argentina. There is still drought out there though. Another system that moved in Tuesday with good rain continues on Wednesday, which should be beneficial to the country as well. The pattern will get drier afterward, for about a week or maybe later. Based on the recent rainfall, a shorter dry stretch will not be all that harmful, but if it lasts longer than forecast, issues may start to arise again. Soybean planting will start in November and the dry stretch will not be favorable early on. More rainfall will be needed to continue reducing drought.

MORE RAIN FOR WESTERN EUROPE

It continues to be unfavorably wet in some areas in northwestern Europe and Italy. Another system will move into western areas with more unneeded showers for Friday into the weekend, though Spain will benefit from the rain that may continue into next week. Eastern areas have been able to recover from a wet period a couple of weeks ago and some areas would like to see rain there for winter wheat establishment.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION GOT NEEDED RAIN, BUT TOO LATE

In the Black Sea region, rainfall deficits in the east are very large and the window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes becoming more likely from now on. Overall drier conditions are in the forecast for the next two weeks with several fronts moving through with very limited showers and larger drops in temperatures. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A front will move through eastern Australia Wednesday and Thursday, but with very little precipitation forecast. The same goes with another system this weekend. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com