Brief Cold Blast for Corn Belt

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A brief shot of very cold air occurring amidst an overall warmer pattern here in the U.S. and some patchy rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR MIDWEST

A burst of cold air is pushing through the Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday. That could be enough to produce some streaks of light snow and open up the lake-effect snow machine for a couple days again. But warmer air will spread back into the region over the weekend and so will a chance for showers with a system that brings in the warmer air. A couple of systems next week may bring a mix of rain and snow that could help with the ongoing drought situation.

LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Another system could start to produce showers across the eastern Plains on Friday, but amounts do not look heavy. Some storm systems next week could bring in some better precipitation but they are not currently forecast to do so. The region has been drier lately after a very wet November and would prefer the storm systems to make more of an impact than forecast.

BRIEF ARCTIC BURST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A burst of colder air is settling into the Northern Plains through Thursday, but will then quickly be replaced by warm air on Friday. Light snow is likely to be around the region through the changing temperatures. Any storm systems that produce good precipitation amounts are forecast to miss the region over the next 10 days. But with so many in the pipeline, that could change. Drought areas throughout much of the region would prefer the precipitation to occur.

RAIN ONLY BRIEFLY HELPFUL ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Recent showers in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys could give a brief bump to water levels on the river, but much more is needed. The gauge in Memphis fell below the low water threshold again and that will likely lead to some restrictions for transportation. The pattern may get a little more favorable and active across the basin this weekend and next week, but it is uncertain if it will benefit the river systems.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONTINUES IN BRAZIL

A front moving up from Argentina brought heavier rain to southern Brazil this weekend and is restarting showers again in central Brazil over the next couple of days. Another system will move through southern areas Friday and Saturday with more rain. Very few areas are showing signs of having weather either too wet or too dry. Overall conditions are still favorable for flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.

SOME DRYNESS CONCERNS IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

A system will move through Argentina Wednesday night through Friday with scattered showers but will favor the west and north. Some of the important areas will stay dry across the central and south, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Mild temperatures will keep water demand down through next week, but the country needs more rain. The next chance would be mid- to late-next week. While issues are only spotty currently, we could see more trouble spots expanding with the pattern continuing to favor scattered showers instead of widespread heavy rain.

TOO WET IN NORTHWEST EUROPE

A massive low-pressure system has torn apart across southern Europe, though some showers may linger throughout the rest of the week. Organized rainfall may return to portions of the continent this weekend and several systems look to continue the rainfall through most of the continent through the end of the year. Areas in the northwest where wheat is still active have found conditions that are too wet. Otherwise, the continued rainfall should help to boost soil moisture for areas that have been too dry. Parts of Spain and the northeast could use more rain, though.

GOING DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Recent rainfall in eastern Australia has improved conditions for cotton and sorghum development. The remaining wheat and canola harvests needed to dodge the rain, but drier conditions this week have allowed soils to drain and fieldwork to resume. The pattern is a bit drier for the rest of the month, with systems bringing through isolated showers instead of organized clusters and lines. While most areas can handle some period of dryness, it is not a favorable look for developing cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com