Cold Early, Warming Up Later This Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A push of cold air through the U.S. but continued dry conditions, and a return to normal across South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COLD THEN WARM FOR MIDWEST

A front moved through the Midwest this weekend and brought some better-than-forecast rainfall around the Great Lakes. Cold air moving into the region will be slow to move out from west to east later this week, and contribute to some additional showers near the Great Lakes. Another front will move into Western areas on Friday or Saturday, but is forecast to produce very little rainfall, and fizzle out before getting eastward. Conditions for harvest are still generally favorable, though areas that plant winter wheat would like to see more rainfall in some areas.

FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK

Though a burst of chilly air is moving into the Central and Southern Plains early this week, it will be short-lived with warmth returning midweek. A system will move in on Friday and finally bring some showers into the region, which could last through Monday to some degree. Winter wheat and livestock producers would welcome the rain, but it doesn’t look heavy enough to combat much of the drought or be a concern for the continued harvest.

MOSTLY WARM AND DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A few showers went through North Dakota over the weekend, but most areas were dry. A front will move in on Thursday with isolated showers that could last into the weekend. Another surge of isolated showers is possible early next week. Temperatures should generally be near or above normal into next week, with some potential for more cold moving in by the middle of next week. Conditions are still good for harvest, though breezy winds at times could be a concern for wildfires in the dry conditions.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL

Continued dry conditions over the weekend for the Delta have sent water levels on the Mississippi River very low, which will cause restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin, restrictions could last a long time.

WET SEASON RAINS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers arrived in Central Brazil late last week, which continues now for the season. The late start has caused soybean planting to be behind significantly, though producers apparently tried to play catch up prior to the rains moving in. We will have to see if producers can make up the gap in soybean planting or if there will be a significant portion of the crop that is planted late. If it is late, the safrinha corn crop will be planted late as well, exposing more of it to the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for filling wheat.

SEVERAL FRONTS WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

The weather pattern is becoming more active across Argentina. Some rain started to move back in on Friday, another burst will move through Monday and Tuesday, and another moves through Wednesday and Thursday, bringing needed rain for corn planting and drought-stricken wheat. More rain is needed, but the forecast is a favorable one for now. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks.

MORE RAIN FOR EUROPE

A system moved through with more showers over the weekend. Another big storm will send more impulses into Europe this week with batches of rain that are forecast to be heavier across the west. Rainfall in the Northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting. Rainfall elsewhere has been more beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING LIMITED RAIN

A system brought another band of heavy rain into central Ukraine over the weekend that is moving through Eastern Ukraine and Western Russia with lighter, but still widespread rainfall that continues into Wednesday. However, the drought situation continues to be very bad across the Eastern Black Sea region despite the incoming rain. With colder air moving into the region, frosts are starting to become more common and closing the window on the potential for good root establishment in the region. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Isolated showers fell over parts of Australia this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A couple of fronts and systems will move through this week with potential for rain, which will be useful for areas that get hit. Areas that get missed in the South would fall further behind.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com