Cold Shot Amidst a Warmer Pattern

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A brief shot of very cold air occurring amidst an overall warmer pattern here in the U.S., and some patchy rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

BRIEF SHOT OF COLD, SNOW FOR MIDWEST

Warm temperatures spread through the Midwest over the weekend and some scattered rain is moving through eastern areas. Some milder air will follow the showers, but a burst of cold air will get pushed through the region briefly midweek. That could be enough to produce some streaks of light snow and open up the lake-effect snow machine for a couple of days again. But warmer air will spread back into the region over the weekend and so will a chance for rain showers. A couple of systems next week may bring a mix of rain and snow that could help with the ongoing drought situation.

LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers went through Texas this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Cold air briefly coming through the region on Monday could produce some snow in the High Plains, but other areas are likely to remain dry. Another system could start to produce showers across the southeast on Friday, but amounts do not look heavy. Some storm systems next week could bring in some better precipitation but they are not currently forecast to do so.

SHIFTING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

It was warm in the Northern Plains over the weekend, but with little precipitation. Some light snow is wrapping in behind a system for Monday and light snow could follow a burst of colder air in the Dakotas midweek. Any storm systems that produce good precipitation amounts are forecast to avoid the region over the next 10 days. But with so many in the pipeline, that could change. Drought areas scattered throughout much of the region would enjoy a change in the forecast.

RAIN ONLY BRIEFLY HELPFUL ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Showers moved up the Mississippi River toward the Midwest on Sunday and that could give a brief bump to water levels on the river, but much more is needed. The gauge in Memphis is falling below the low water threshold again and that will likely lead to some restrictions for transportation. The pattern may get a little more favorable and active across the basin this weekend and next week, but that is uncertain.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER IN BRAZIL

Rain was isolated over central Brazil this weekend, but a front moving up from Argentina brought heavier rain to the south that will restart showers again in central Brazil midweek. Another system will move through southern areas on Friday and Saturday with more rain. Very few areas are showing signs of having weather issues either being too wet or too dry. Overall conditions are still favorable for flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.

SOME DRYNESS CONCERNS IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

A front brought limited showers to Argentina last week, but did hit some important spots. A system that moves through mid-late week will favor the west and north with rainfall, but more of the important areas will stay dry, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans. Mild temperatures will keep water demand down through next week, but the country needs more rain. While issues are only spotty currently, we could see more trouble spots develop with the pattern continuing to favor scattered or spotty showers over widespread heavy rain.

MORE RAIN FOR EUROPE

A massive low-pressure system settled across southern Europe over the weekend, but brought widespread heavy rain to France, Germany and the UK late last week, as well as Italy and the Balkans over the weekend. The system will be torn apart over the next day or two, though some showers may linger throughout the week. Organized rainfall may return to portions of the continent this weekend and several systems look to continue the rainfall through most of the continent through the end of the year. Areas in the northwest where wheat is still not dormant have found conditions that are too wet. Otherwise, the continued rainfall should help to boost soil moisture for areas that have been too dry. Parts of Spain and the northeast could use more rain, though.

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through Australia over the weekend, especially in the east where conditions have been much improved for cotton and sorghum development. The remaining wheat and canola harvest has needed to dodge the rain and some spots may have seen too much rain that has caused delays and some small quality concerns. The country’s agricultural areas will be quieter this week, allowing wet areas to drain a bit.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com