Corn Belt Storm Track for Next Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A continued active pattern for the U.S. and Canada with a more consistent storm track through the Corn Belt, wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ACTIVE STORM TRACK FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEST

The Midwest will be in the crosshairs of several storm systems through next week that will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms. While each system may not bring a ton of rainfall on its own, when added together we should see pockets of heavy rain that would keep planting slower than normal in some areas. For those with seed in the ground, the consistent rains should be favorable, however.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Several systems will move through the Central and Southern Plains through next week. Chances for rain are better away from the southwest, but there is potential for at least some there. The scattered and sporadic nature to the showers with these systems should lead to further planting windows being open, though some areas getting hit multiple times may find some difficulty. That is most likely across the north.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING ACTIVE, TOO

Several systems will move through the Northern Plains over the next week. Some areas of heavy rain are forecast, but others will see little or none. Planting windows should be open for most areas, but others may find some difficulty, especially those that saw heavy rain last week. Temperatures will trend colder than normal starting this weekend and continue to be below normal through next week.

STORM TRACK MAY SHIFT NORTH FOR DELTA NEXT WEEK

Recent heavy rain in the Delta has kept soils moist for newly planted crops, but made it more difficult for those that haven’t planted. However, the region has seen good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions so far this spring. A front will still go through the region through Saturday with showers. The pattern will be less active next week with the storm track farther north. Fronts dipping into the region will still bring some areas of showers, however.

COLD AND WET IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The storm track is busy through the Canadian Prairies through the weekend, with a system wrapping up and bringing scattered showers through Monday. It likely gets quieter as a trough settles into the region and pushes the storm track south for next week. Some areas of heavy rain are possible, but most likely north, which should help with the drought but not planting. Colder temperatures are settling in under that trough through next week, which keeps frosts in the forecast.

TWO FRONTS CREATING MORE FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front over Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil pushes north on Friday, but heavy rain exacerbates the flooding there. The front will shift north again into southern safrinha growing areas for the weekend where it may bring some limited relieving rain. Central Brazil continues to be hot and dry, though, and crop conditions continue to fall there. Another front will do the same in the middle of next week, but this one may get showers into more of the safrinha corn areas late next week. Those chances are low, but not zero, and any rainfall would be helpful for the filling crop.

WIDESPREAD FROSTS IN ARGENTINA

Cold and mostly dry conditions over Argentina continue through next week, though far northern areas will catch some rain at times. Overall, the potential for harvest progress continues to increase, though the colder conditions have been producing frosts, which isn’t welcome for late-developing crops or newly planted winter wheat.

STORM KEEPING WESTERN EUROPE WET

A system continues in western Europe, keeping wetter conditions going for the UK and France. The system drifts eastward over the weekend and early next week with widespread rain. Another system may move in right behind it next week, though, keeping western areas wet well into next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A system in the Black Sea has been producing limited showers in far southern Russia, which continue Friday and is a somewhat helpful sign for the drier soils there. Colder temperatures have meant frost in central Russia, and have been close in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia as well, which may have produced damage. Temperatures will rise this weekend but showers continue to be very limited and much of the region is extremely dry.

QUIETER WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Dry conditions are in place for most areas of Australia for the next week. While planting conditions have been pretty smooth, establishment weather hasn’t been all that great outside of New South Wales. The hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino fades and La Nina takes over in the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com