Couple of Systems for Northern Tier This Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Rain in the northern U.S. with dryness in the east, a change in the pattern toward hot and active this weekend, wet weather in parts of Europe, and heat and dryness in the Black Sea, are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR MIDWEST

Showers moved across the Midwest over the weekend. Missouri saw areas of heavy rain, but most areas were dry or saw light rain, a favorable occurrence for most areas. Two systems will move through the region this week. And while they will not be very strong, they will bring some rainfall and potential severe weather through the region. Temperatures will waffle with the systems moving through, but will be much more consistently warmer starting this weekend, which could start to stress areas that do not receive a lot of rain. The pattern also gets more active this weekend, so dry spots that develop should be very limited for now.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front produced widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Central and Southern Plains, including some significant severe weather, over the weekend. The front will slide south through Texas on Monday with more rain. Two systems will move well off to the north of the region this week but may spread a few showers and thunderstorms anyway. A much larger system will push a front into the region on Friday and Saturday, with widespread precipitation forecast over the weekend and into next week. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures returning to the area this week.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but most areas stayed favorably dry. A system will move through Monday and another will move through Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers. A larger system will move into the region Friday and likely bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms into the weekend. A storm track farther north is forecast to keep this region active for the rest of June, which could be too wet for some areas.

QUIETER AND MILD IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers moved through northern areas of the Delta over the weekend and a front will sag south Monday with more. Drier weather is likely for the rest of the week, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico start to produce showers and thunderstorms in the region this weekend. Temperatures will be cooler after that front comes through for a few days but start to rise again by the end of the week, likely being quite warm if and when showers do not develop.

STORM TRACK RUNNING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Limited showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but most areas stayed favorably dry. It was cool though and some patchy light frosts developed in some areas that were able to see winds die down and skies clear. Temperatures will be much more seasonable this week, but a couple of systems rolling through will bring scattered showers, keeping a lot of areas unfavorably wet. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas.

RAIN COMING BACK TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Dry conditions with warm temperatures are helping safrinha corn to mature in Brazil but are not favorable for the portion of the crop that is still immature. Dryness has been allowing southern areas to recover from flooding as well. Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures are expected all week long, with a front moving into the region this weekend that will produce some rain over southern areas. That is not favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where they still need time to dry out more, but will be for any showers that can move north for immature safrinha corn.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

A front moved over southern Argentina over the weekend with limited rainfall, but most areas stayed dry, which is helpful for the remaining corn and soybean harvest. Winter wheat would like to see some rain falling in the country to help with planting and establishment. A front will move through the country Friday. The front will have limited rainfall but systems that follow behind it could offer some additional moisture going into the second half of the month.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWESTERN EUROPE

A front brought a zone of showers from northern Spain through western Ukraine over the weekend. This general area stays active with showers through midweek before a system moves the front south into the Mediterranean and brings showers to needed areas in the southeast. South of this front, it has been very warm and eastern areas will find additional warmth returning over the weekend. That comes with another upper-level low-pressure center moving into northwestern Europe and bringing more unfavorable rainfall to the UK, France, and parts of Germany that have not had many breaks in the wet pattern that has been in place for months.

LIMITED RELIEF FOR BLACK SEA

A front moved into western Ukraine over the weekend and brought some showers there while it was much drier and hotter to the south and east. The front will generally hang out in western Ukraine most of the week, until it is pushed eastward by a system for late week and weekend. That system is forecast to bring meaningful rainfall to eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which is needed for heading wheat and developing corn and sunflowers. Wheat is running out of time for rain to be helpful, however.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIA

Western Australia saw a couple of fronts move through with showers over the weekend while it was drier in the east. One of the fronts scrapes through southeastern areas with some favorable showers early this week. Models depict another system over western areas early this week but fizzle it out before getting into eastern areas. However, most areas in the east have seen favorable rainfall in recent weeks, good enough for mostly good establishment conditions for winter wheat and canola. Though not especially wet this week, the change to La Nina should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com