Drier Pattern For US is Not Dry For All

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Quieter weather in the U.S., but not for all locations, wet weather in parts of Europe, and heat and dryness in the Black Sea, are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

UPPER LOW CONTINUING SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

An upper-level low that will park itself in the Great Lakes may continue showers through the weekend. And a small system may move through early- to mid-next week, but amounts look to be light and widely scattered, allowing many areas to dry out for the remaining planting or replanting. Temperatures will also be cooler than normal by a couple of degrees for the next week before rising. Soil moisture remains high in most areas for early growth.

ANOTHER ACTIVE FRONT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Recent precipitation has been more widespread and gone through some of the drought areas of the Central and Southern Plains with good rainfall amounts, which has reduced drought. A stalled front in the region will produce showers and thunderstorms Friday with potential continuing into early next week as it drifts south. Though some areas of flooding have developed, and those left to plant may have some difficult conditions, the rainfall is good for early growth in most areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS STILL MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Despite some isolated showers being possible at times, drier weather is expected for most of the Northern Plains through the weekend. The drier weather is preferred in some areas of the eastern Dakotas for the remaining planting and boosting crop conditions. A system will go through early next week with some showers but should be patchy rainfall. The pattern gets more active again late next week as temperatures rise.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR DELTA

Scattered showers and heavy rain have been moving through the Delta recently, but it will be a much drier pattern through next week. A stalled front could produce more rainfall this weekend into early next week for a few areas, but is not forecast to be widespread. Temperatures will trend mild to even a couple of degrees below normal for a few days next week, keeping stress low for developing crops.

SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Isolated showers may dot the Canadian Prairies through the weekend, but drier conditions are likely for more areas than not. A system may bring more scattered showers to eastern areas early next week. The storm track is likely to shift back into the region by the end of next week and keep it busy. Soil moisture is much improved and early growth should find mostly good conditions.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR BRAZIL

Dry conditions with increasing temperatures continue to be unfavorable for safrinha corn that are still immature in Brazil, but most of the crop is heading more toward maturity and early harvest has started. Southern areas are seeing flood waters recede and soils dry out. Some winter wheat planting may start up, but the damage to infrastructure and continued wet soils probably keep this slow.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

Dry conditions have continued to favor corn and soybean harvest in Argentina, but not winter wheat planting and establishment. A couple of fronts could produce showers over southern areas later this week and weekend with more potential for next week, but generally look light and still unfavorable for wheat.

FRONT CONTINUES SHOWERS IN EUROPE

A front will push through Europe and settle west-east from northern Spain to western Ukraine over the next day or two, producing a zone which will see scattered showers continuing into next week. Some of these areas will welcome the rain while others will not. Heat south of the front may be stressful for those that are drier.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY IN BLACK SEA

Hot and dry conditions continue to be a concern for both heading winter wheat and developing corn and sunflowers in the Black Sea region. A front will move into northwestern areas and stall over the next day or so, bringing favorable showers in those areas through next week. But most wheat areas will stay unfavorably hot and dry going into next week.

FREQUENT FRONTS MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

Precipitation has increased recently in Australia as more systems are moving through the country instead of south of it. A front will go through western areas Thursday and Friday with another over the weekend that is likely to get into eastern areas next week and more systems are lining up behind it. With the switch to La Nina continuing to develop, the prospect for rainfall should continue to increase over the next few months, very favorable for crop establishment and development with time.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com