Drought Improvement Continues for US in Active Pattern

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — An active pattern for the U.S. with areas of heavy rain and severe storms but improvements in the drought, poor weather in western Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE REMAINING DROUGHT IN MIDWEST

Heavy rain and severe weather went through southern areas of the Midwest on Wednesday with a system moving through, and its remnants continue in the region for Thursday. Recent rainfall has been too heavy in a lot of areas, slowing down or halting planting but also improving drought. After a cooler weekend, temperatures will likely waffle a bit through next week as the pattern remains active with fronts and systems. However, these systems are less likely to contain widespread heavy rain as they come from the northwest. Some areas may still get heavy rain, or at least enough to keep planting at a slower pace than optimal, though.

QUIETER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL WEEKEND

Some isolated showers will pop up in the Central and Southern Plains for the rest of the week, but many areas will remain dry, which will help open some planting windows for areas that have had some heavy rain lately. Wheat conditions in the southwest still are not great, even after some decent rainfall over the weekend. But the southern storm track may be more active starting this weekend and continuing through next week, which may promote better rainfall chances there. Areas farther north will also see some rainfall, but is less likely to be heavy, allowing planting windows to remain open just a bit.

LIMITED SHOWERS NOW FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system that had settled in the Northern Plains this week brought widespread rainfall and has included some heavy amounts for the driest areas in Montana. The rain will keep any fieldwork slow for the next couple of days as soils recover. Additional fronts and systems will move across the region through next week but contain more isolated showers as planting windows will open back up again. Temperatures will waffle around as these fronts come and go.

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN RISKS FOR DELTA

Heavy rain and severe weather went across northern areas of the Delta on Wednesday, and the front responsible remains in the area for Thursday where more will be possible farther south. The region will stay active with another system for early next week and probably another for later next week. The active weather will ensure good soil moisture but may be too wet in some areas for further planting. However, the region continues to see good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system brought areas of heavy and widespread rainfall to the Canadian Prairies earlier this week. Parts of northwestern Alberta stayed dry, but heavy rain in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan was needed as it continues to sit in significant drought. The rain will produce significant planting delays, but the good news is that this may be the last system with widespread heavy rain for a while, even though the pattern remains active through next week. Systems moving through will have less moisture to work with and create more isolated showers than widespread heavy rain, allowing for some planting windows to open with time.

FRONT EXACERBATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Recent heavy rain over Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil has produced catastrophic flooding over the last two weeks. The front responsible for the rain has shifted back into the area and will waffle around the state yet again through Monday. Flooding, mudslides and crop damage are all putting a damper on what was a pretty good crop season and making for massive delays in winter wheat planting. Safrinha corn in the central will continue to be very dry and hot as well. Southern corn areas may catch some of the rain from the front later next week.

FROST RISKS FOR ARGENTINA

A front was pushed back north into Paraguay and Brazil and out of Argentina on Wednesday. Colder and drier conditions follow into next week. That may be able to increase corn and soybean harvest but may mean widespread frosts for any immature crops. The drier pattern lasts through at least next week.

ANOTHER STORM KEEPING WESTERN EUROPE WET

Briefly, drier conditions are taking over much of Europe for the next few days. But another system will move into western areas on Sunday and could settle in there for a while, keeping wetter conditions going for the UK and France. The system pushes east later next week with widespread rain.

LIMITED SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FROST FOR BLACK SEA

It is still very dry in most of the primary wheat areas of the Black Sea region. That has made smooth planting progress for corn and sunflowers but threatens all crops with building dryness. Frosts are going to be common across northern areas of the region going into next week. Some damage may occur, though the coldest air will be over less-developed wheat in the northeast. The pattern does look a little more active this weekend into next week, but currently, the forecast is for streaks of lighter rain, and not the turnaround of moderate to heavy rain that the region needs.

MORE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system will bring scattered showers to New South Wales in eastern Australia through Saturday, which will help with winter wheat and canola establishment. While planting conditions have been pretty smooth, establishment weather hasn’t been all that great outside of New South Wales. The hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino fades and La Nina takes over in the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com