Heat Increasing, Becoming Consistent This Weekend

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A change in the pattern toward hot and active this weekend, wet weather in parts of Europe, and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

HEAT INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BY WEEKEND

Another system will move across the Midwest through Thursday, bringing some rainfall and potential severe weather. The pattern gets more active this weekend for western areas, with a front moving into and stalling there through much of next week. Eastern areas are less likely to see rainfall but could see some. Temperatures will waffle with the system moving through, but will be much more consistently warmer starting this weekend, which could start to stress areas that do not receive rain, particularly across the east.

SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving well off to the north but may spread a few showers and thunderstorms across the Central Plains the next couple of days anyway. A much larger system will push a front into the region on Friday and Saturday and stall, with widespread precipitation forecast over the weekend and through next week, especially north. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures returning to the area.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Northern Plains for Wednesday and Thursday with isolated showers. A larger system will move into the region on Friday and drop its front into the region that will stall out. That will bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms through next week, which may produce some flooding in some parts of the region.

QUIETER IN THE DELTA

Drier weather is likely in the Delta for the rest of the week, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico start to produce showers and thunderstorms in the region this weekend. Temperatures will start to rise again by the end of the week; it will likely be quite warm and stressful if showers do not develop.

STORM TRACK RUNNING NEAR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Temperatures are much more seasonable in the Canadian Prairies, but a couple of systems rolling through continue to bring scattered showers. A larger system moves in on Friday and brings more widespread precipitation through the region through the weekend. The storm track will be near or through the region for next week, with multiple disturbances being possible to bring showers through. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas.

RAIN COMING BACK TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Dry conditions with warm temperatures are helping safrinha corn to mature in Brazil but are not favorable for the portion of the crop that is still immature. Dryness has been allowing southern areas to recover from flooding as well. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue for the next few days, with a front moving into the south this weekend that will produce rain into next week. That is not favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where they still need time to dry out more but will be for any showers that can move north for immature safrinha corn.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Winter wheat would like to see some rain falling in Argentina to help with planting and establishment. A front will move through the country Friday. The front will have limited rainfall but systems that follow behind it could offer some additional moisture going into the second half of the month. Colder air will become a possibility as well, being unfavorable for wheat establishment.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWESTERN EUROPE

A system is pushing through southeastern Europe with needed showers for Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring some brief relief to hot temperatures, but eastern areas will find additional warmth returning over the weekend. On Friday, another upper-level low-pressure center will move into northwestern Europe and bring more unfavorable rainfall to the UK, France, and parts of Germany that have not had many breaks in the wet pattern that has been in place for months. Another extension of this low-pressure center moves through early next week with more showers there as well.

LIMITED RELIEF FOR BLACK SEA

A front over western Ukraine will be pushed eastward by a system Wednesday and Thursday and more showers will move through over the weekend into early next week. Meaningful rainfall is forecast for eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which is needed for heading wheat and developing corn and sunflowers, though wheat is largely out of time to benefit in most areas. Hot and largely dry conditions there have been damaging. Though temperatures will take a small reprieve with the system, they will increase again next week while it dries out again.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIA

A system that moved through western Australia Tuesday will be weak as it gets into eastern areas over the next couple of days with only limited showers. However, most areas in the east have seen favorable rainfall in recent weeks, good enough for mostly good establishment conditions for winter wheat and canola. Though not especially wet this week, the change to La Nina should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months. There are several chances for rain next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com