Heat Stressing Corn Belt Next Few Days

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Brief high temperatures in the Corn Belt, showers continuing in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies for wheat harvest, and a cold, dry start to South American spring are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

BRIEFLY HOT IN THE MIDWEST

Temperatures increased in the Midwest over the weekend, becoming hot in some spots, which continues through a good portion of this week. Some showers developed around Missouri, but that was about it. Another front will sneak into the region this week. It may take out some of the extreme heat in some spots, but also be the focus for at least some showers. The potential for widespread rainfall is low until another front pushes through Thursday and Friday. That will bring more sweeping cooler temperatures through the region along with the needed showers.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heat spread through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. Some limited showers did as well, but many areas stayed dry. Limited showers will continue to be possible until a front comes through late in the week. The front should also bring in some cooler temperatures. Models disagree if the front will clear the region or get stuck over the south and continue to produce showers into next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, but many areas stayed favorably dry for the continued wheat harvest. Scattered showers will stay in the region through Thursday before a system finally pushes chances out. Loss of quality and harvest delays will be possible for wheat.

HOT AND DRY DELTA AWAITING COLD FRONT

Temperatures rose in the Delta over the weekend while it stayed dry, an unfavorable combination for filling cotton and soybeans. The hot and dry conditions are likely to last much of the week, until a front moves through Friday through the weekend. This should bring widespread showers that could linger into next week. Milder temperatures will also filter into the region, much more favorable conditions for filling crops.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, creating some strings of heavy rainfall and some severe storms. It should be drier Monday, but another front and system will move through Tuesday through Thursday with scattered showers and potential strong winds that could be damaging to mature wheat, canola, and other crops waiting to be harvested.

FROSTS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers fell over southern Brazil over the weekend, getting into Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo, but no farther north. Extremely dry conditions exist farther north and they would enjoy some rain before the wet seasons rains come in about a month. Southern areas also saw very cold temperatures move into the region, creating some areas of frosts that could have been damaging to wheat. Cold air remains for the next couple of nights before becoming warm again. It should be dry for much of the week as well. Another front will come through Friday through the weekend. It may not bring much precipitation, but it could drop temperatures again. Models are mixed on how cold the front could be.

FROSTS AND FREEZES IN ARGENTINA

A few isolated showers fell in Argentina this weekend, but most areas stayed unfavorably dry. Cold air settled in and produced widespread frosts and freezes, which may have been damaging to wheat, or at least slowed down its development. The cold will stick around the next couple of days and another burst of cool air may come through late this week behind another front. The front is forecast to produce some rain, but the prospect of the cold air is disputed in the models. The country remains very dry and could use some rain ahead of spring corn planting, which should start up next month.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS ALSO IN EUROPE

A front moved into western Europe over the weekend, bringing scattered showers, but is drying out as it moves eastward. Temperatures continue to be very warm for most areas and will rise in western areas over the course of the week as well. Another front may move in with limited showers late this week, but it likely stays hot and dry through next week, a poor combination in most areas for filling corn. Areas near the Mediterranean may see some isolated showers.

DROUGHT WORSENING IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

It continued to be hot and dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend. A small system is in the Black Sea, which may bring a few spotty showers to southern areas. Otherwise, it will be hot and dry for the week, likely through next week as well. Drought continues to expand and damage filling corn and sunflowers.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR MOST OF AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through most of Australia outside of Queensland over the weekend, continuing to support good growing conditions for winter wheat and canola. Several systems moving through the Southern Ocean this week will produce some showers across the south, but will not penetrate farther north where it has been drier lately. Temperatures will continue to be very warm except near the coast, which will cause quicker development of winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com