Heavy Precipitation for Southwestern Plains

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Heavy rain and snow for the southwestern Plains wheat areas, a continued active pattern for the Central U.S., and overall good weather for now in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MORE RAIN COMING TO THE MIDWEST

A front is pushing showers to the east and south of the Midwest on Wednesday, after several days of waves of heavy rain that have led to drought reduction across much of the region. Some flooding has occurred because of heavy rain though, especially in Missouri. After a few days’ break, another system will move through this weekend with scattered showers and another system is poised to move through next week with more rain chances. Temperatures continue to be above normal, allowing the rain to build soil moisture and improve conditions for winter wheat.

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the last week have meant a lot of meaningful rain for the Central and Southern Plains, boosting soil moisture and improving crop conditions for wheat, but causing flooding and disrupting remaining fieldwork. An upper-level low is moving into the Southwest on Wednesday, with showers building across the west for the end of the week which includes some heavy snow in Colorado and New Mexico. The low will move northeast through the region on Saturday, with any snow changing to rain. Some areas in the southwest will see some heavy precipitation. Those that see snow will see temperatures stay lower while the rest of the region sees above-normal temperatures, allowing the additional moisture to improve conditions for wheat.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system moving through western areas of the Northern Plains is bringing some showers through on Wednesday and should return over the weekend for eastern areas with limited showers. After a brief cooldown, temperatures should return to being above normal by the end of the week. Another front is likely to push through early next week and may bring some showers as well.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS GETTING A BUMP

Water levels on the Mississippi River are rising due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. Tributaries into the river are bursting, but the Mississippi needs to see more precipitation from the Ohio for sustained change. Additional rain will fall with a system moving through this weekend and there is potential for another next week.

WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in Central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Soybean planting has reached the normal pace and the risk of significant late plantings of safrinha corn will now look to the potential for heavy rain at soybean harvest and corn planting in February. Otherwise, good growing conditions are currently found throughout most of the country. Southern areas are seeing waves of showers from fronts moving up from Argentina, though a front that moves through early next week may have more limited showers and another stretch of drier weather will be possible afterward.

DRIER STRETCH AFTER MORE RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Another front will move through Argentina on Wednesday and Thursday with more scattered showers. Some additional spotty showers may continue before the next system moves in over the weekend and early next week. Models are backing off on the precipitation potential for that system and a stretch of drier weather is likely to return afterward. However, it is not expected to last more than a week and overall favorable conditions continue to be present in most of the country for now. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

DRIER EUROPE GETTING SOME SHOWERS NEXT WEEK

Some showers continue over the Iberian Peninsula and may redevelop there and across France toward the end of the week as well. But the remainder of Europe is likely to be dry through the weekend. The recent dryness is starting to be a problem again in the eastern half where soil moisture deficits are growing. The dryness had been favorable in the northwest, but some areas could use a little rain now, too. A system may then try to dive south through the middle of the continent early next week and bring showers there.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Very limited showers have been moving through Australia lately and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, but the forecast is calling for continued light and spotty rainfall with these systems.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com