Heavy Rain and Severe Weather Continue
An active pattern for the U.S. and Canada, especially through the Corn Belt with heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather, wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.
MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — An active pattern for the U.S. and Canada, especially through the Corn Belt with heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather, wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.
ACTIVE STORM TRACK THROUGH MIDWEST
A large system moving through the Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday is bringing rounds of heavy rain and severe storms. That may induce flooding in the northwest. The front to the system will settle somewhere near the Ohio River and stay active for the rest of the week. Additional systems will move through the region this weekend and especially early next week that leave further planting windows short.
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
Multiple systems will go through the Central and Southern Plains over the next week with heavy rain both north and east. Southwestern areas that continue to deal with drought are not forecast to see a lot of heavy rain, though thunderstorms that move through could bless limited areas with heavier amounts. Temperatures will fluctuate with fronts moving through, but in general will be cooler across the northwest in Nebraska and warmer across the south.
NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING ACTIVE TOO
Several storm systems will move through the Northern Plains over the course of the next week, making for areas of heavy rain. Cooler temperatures in place will stay that way into next week and could cause some snow to mix in at times. Some frosts will not help with germinating crops either.
STORM TRACK NORTH OF DELTA, BUT STILL SOME SHOWERS
The main storm track will be to the north of the Delta this week, but a front will settle in the northern portions of the region mid to late week as thunderstorms move through with some heavy rain potential. Additional storm systems may go through this weekend and early next week that could get more of the region active as well.
COLD AND WET IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES
A system that has wrapped up in the Canadian Prairies will continue to develop precipitation in the region Tuesday, but could linger some showers through Wednesday. The storm track is farther south, but could sneak in some showers to southeastern areas Friday and across the south this weekend. Any rain will continue to make planting progress slower, but also help ease drought conditions.
ANOTHER FRONT CREATING FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL
Another front moves back into southern Brazil on Tuesday and especially Wednesday with more bouts of heavy rain that will make flooding conditions worse again. That front shifts northward for Friday and the weekend, where showers may get into southern safrinha corn growing areas, favorable for any crop it rains on. That front may reload there over the weekend into early next week with some beneficial showers as well.
WIDESPREAD FROSTS IN ARGENTINA
Cold and dry conditions continue in Argentina this week, though northeastern areas will see some showers with a front midweek. The cold will likely produce more frosts, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. But drier weather will increase the remaining corn and soybean harvest.
WESTERN EUROPE STAYING WET
A system continued to produce scattered showers over western Europe but also some central areas over the weekend. The wetter weather is unfavorable for wheat development that needs some sun and drier conditions. The system phases out, but the showers likely continue mid to late week, then across the east late week and weekend.
LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA
It was dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend but temperatures rose and frosts are no longer a threat. Despite the more favorable temperatures, it continues to be very dry in the region and models are cutting back on the precipitation forecast for a couple of fronts moving through. Dryness is becoming critical for wheat that started off in good shape this spring. Summer crops are also dealing with dwindling soil moisture that is unfavorable.
QUIETER WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA
It was dry in Australia over the weekend and should be dry for most areas through this weekend as well. A few systems may move into the country next week as Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to trend toward a favorable La Nina scenario over the next several weeks.
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com