Heavy Rain Early This Week for Central US

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy precipitation and drought reduction in the Plains and Midwest, another big storm in the middle of the country this week, and overall fair weather for now in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

BIG STORM LINGERING IN THE MIDWEST

Some light showers moved into the Midwest over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A system building in the Southern Plains will quickly move up into Minnesota early Tuesday with scattered showers. The low will weaken, but twirl around the region the rest of the week, continuing showers. Some areas of snow will accompany the rain as some colder air filters in later in the week. Areas currently covered in some form of drought will get some precipitation, but areas of heavy rain are likely to be limited to the west. The pattern stays active going into December though, so drought areas will get more chances coming up. Colder air may leak into the region next week behind a couple of systems moving through.

BIG STORM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

A system in the Southern Plains will quickly move northeast into the Upper Midwest Monday, but has been spreading a zone of heavy rain and thunderstorms through a good portion of the region. Another system could go through over the weekend with a couple more being possible next week, keeping the region active, but eventually bringing some cold air in. Recent precipitation has been able to reduce drought significantly over the last few weeks, a tendency that continues this week.

RAIN AND SNOW FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Some showers went through the Northern Plains over the weekend in Montana and North Dakota, but most areas stayed dry. A system will produce more widespread showers, including areas of snow and breezy winds through Wednesday. Another system will move through over the weekend and could produce some beneficial precipitation as well. Though drought is intense in much of the region, the coming pattern should help out somewhat.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER GETTING UPSTREAM MOISTURE

Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. More rain is needed in the Ohio Valley to maintain or make long-lasting improvements, but there is some potential there. A storm that moves through this week will be helpful and more systems are forecast for next week as well.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRAZIL WITH GOOD RAIN

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for soybean establishment and growth. Southern areas will see a system move through with better coverage and amounts of rain through Thursday. Overall conditions are still mostly favorable in the country.

IMPORTANT AREA OF ARGENTINA MISSED FROM WEEKEND SYSTEM

A system moved through Argentina with scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, but missed a key area in the central that has been drier lately. Though some isolated showers may move through this week, most areas will remain dry. Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall being forecast again. Though some areas are starting to dry out, the weather is still mostly favorable in the country. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.

WIDESPREAD, HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR EUROPE

Showers started to move into Europe over the weekend and several storm systems should keep the continent busy with widespread showers throughout the week. That will help southeastern areas that have been much drier while keeping soil moisture very high across the rest of the continent. Though the pattern quiets down next week, additional showers and systems are still expected. Wheat is going dormant from north to south in mostly good condition, though some wet spots are not all that favorable.

INCREASING RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through eastern Australia over the weekend, unfavorable for fieldwork and winter harvest, but good for cotton and sorghum planting and establishment. The pattern is getting somewhat more active for the second half of November, which will be helpful in most areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com