Heavy Rain Expected Next Week, Uncertain Where

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Potential for heavy rain in the U.S. next week despite uncertainty as to where, recent good rainfall across South America, but late soybean planting due to earlier dryness, and a drier stretch for Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MIDWEST SEEING HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK

A small system continues to move through the Midwest, which brought moderate to heavy showers in some areas on Thursday and continues with waning showers on Friday. Despite that, showers are not heavy enough to build real soil moisture, reduce drought, or disrupt harvest for too many areas. A storm system moving in next week could bring some waves of showers to the region that could be more meaningful, though models disagree on the distribution of heavy rain potential.

BIG STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Despite some showers earlier this week and a few thunderstorms in the east on Thursday, soil moisture in the Central and Southern Plains continues to be quite low with widespread drought. Harvest conditions have been very good though. A pair of systems will move into the region next week with a much better chance for pulses of showers to move through the region that could be more substantial. Models are working out that potential, however and western areas may get bypassed.

LOOKING FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

There is potential for showers to develop in the Northern Plains with pulses of energy moving through next week, though models disagree on that potential. If precipitation does not occur, drought will continue to expand in the region. Some windy conditions at times could increase the fire risk as well.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW DESPITE COMING RAIN

Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be low, causing restrictions on transportation. Though a system will move into the middle of the country next week and probably produce some areas of heavy rain for portions of the basin, it is unlikely to produce enough rainfall to significantly raise water levels on the river.

CENTRAL BRAZIL CONTINUES TO SEE GOOD RAINFALL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Eyes will be on a report released Friday afternoon to see if producers have been able to reduce the gap from late planting of soybeans. They have until the end of the month before the window closes. Rainfall has been good farther south as well, with much better progress on planting occurring there, even though they will go through a drier stretch for the next week.

ARGENTINA GOING THROUGH DRIER STRETCH

An overall wetter pattern lately has reduced drought and brought moisture for filling wheat and corn establishment in Argentina. There is still drought out there though, even after a system brought through some good rain earlier this week. The pattern is turning drier though, for about a week before models start bringing showers back in going into November. Based on the recent rainfall, a shorter dry stretch will not be all that harmful, but if it lasts longer than forecast, issues may start to arise again. Soybean planting will start in November and the dry stretch will not be favorable early on. More rainfall will be needed to continue reducing drought.

MORE RAIN FOR WESTERN EUROPE

It continues to be unfavorably wet in some areas in northwestern Europe and Italy. A system is moving into western areas with more unneeded showers into the weekend, though Spain will mostly benefit from the rain that may continue there through next week. Eastern areas have been able to recover from a wet period a couple of weeks ago but some areas would now like to see rain there for winter wheat establishment.

WINDOW CLOSING FOR BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, rainfall deficits are very large in the east and the window for winter wheat establishment has essentially closed with frosts and freezes becoming more likely from now on. Overall drier conditions are in the forecast for the next two weeks with several fronts moving through with very limited showers and larger drops in temperatures. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A front brought very little precipitation for agricultural areas in Australia earlier this week, being heavier along the coast. Another system that goes through this weekend is forecast to do the same. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola. With harvest starting up in the north, the time for rain to be beneficial is coming to an end, but will help out the coming cotton and sorghum crops that will be planted in November.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com