Heavy Rainfall in Southern U.S. This Week with Drier Conditions in Argentina

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -– Milder temperatures return to much of the U.S. this week along with wetter conditions in the south-central and Southeast. Meanwhile, drier conditions will remain in place across far southern Brazil and Argentina this week. These are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Some snow showers tagged the region on Friday, but dry and cold conditions returned for the weekend as Arctic air lingered. While some areas with limited snowpack have been exposed to the arctic cold, they have been more susceptible to winterkill on winter wheat. Warmer air returns on Monday and will also bring in several rounds of precipitation this week. The front end should be cold enough for some areas of freezing rain and snow Monday into Tuesday. Parts of Illinois could see at least 0.10-0.25 inch of ice.

RAINY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

Arctic cold was locked in place across the region this past weekend. Much of the winter wheat crop is covered by recent snow, but Oklahoma and Texas have been uncovered and are more susceptible to winterkill. Warmer air will start to move in Monday and produce areas of showers throughout the week, primarily in the southeast. Freezing rain will tag Oklahoma and Kansas on Monday, but then rain will return and continue into the middle of the week. Early-week precipitation chances will provide more moisture for dormant wheat.

DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Mostly dry conditions resided across the area this weekend, but Arctic air remained in place through Saturday. Milder air returned Sunday and will stick around through the end of the month. While some light, wintry precipitation is possible early this week, mostly dry conditions will return during the second half of the week. More mild temperatures this week will help lessen the harsh conditions for livestock.

DELTA WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK

There was a risk for winterkill on winter wheat that was left exposed to the Arctic air this past weekend. Warmer temperatures move back into the area this week and will bring several rounds of rain, melting the snow. Heavy rain is likely in southern areas this week which may continue to boost water levels on the Mississippi River and increase transportation for at least a little while.

BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

Showers in central Brazil had low coverage last week but that will change this week as showers will become more widespread and consistent. This week’s showers have the potential to improve conditions for soybeans that are still maturing, but with harvest already underway for early planted beans, the rainfall could be a setback to harvest progress. More consistent showers will also benefit safrinha corn planting which should start up shortly. Far southern areas will be drier through this week, if not longer, which will be a concern for some areas that have missed out on the beneficial rains from previous weeks.

DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR ARGENTINA

Conditions started to trend drier last week and there will not be much relief in dry conditions this week, as any notable precipitation will stay off to the west and south of the main growing areas. Corn and soybean conditions are likely to fall toward the end of the month as soil moisture may begin to deplete this week.

SHOWERS SHIFTING NORTH IN EUROPE THIS WEEK

A large storm across the Mediterranean provided more showers for wheat in southern areas early this past weekend. Good precipitation over the south has been favorable for vegetative wheat in Spain and Italy, but the storm track shifts north this week and southern areas will turn drier. Temperatures will also continue to be above normal for much of the main growing areas this week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.deutchman@dtn.com.