Helene Continues to Impact Deep Into the Country

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy rain in the Corn Belt, continued impacts from Hurricane Helene into the Midwest and Mid-South, and a weak start to the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST

An upper-level low is bringing the remnant low of Hurricane Helene up into the southern end of the Midwest on Friday, with areas of heavy rain near the Ohio River that will turn into lighter showers going through the weekend. A burst of moderately strong winds will move through on Friday as well. A front should push the lows out on Tuesday, but that front should not produce much precipitation itself. Harvest could be impacted by the recent and forecasted rain, though winter wheat areas would like to see the increased moisture. Drought will be reduced and the water moving into the Ohio Valley should help to build water levels for the Mississippi River as well.

DRYING OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Conditions in the Central and Southern Plains should be warm and dry through next week. Though a couple of fronts may come through, precipitation is not forecasted and temperatures should not drop all that much. The lack of rainfall is a bit of a concern for winter wheat establishment, even after some nice rain last week.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains should be dry through the weekend, favorable for maturing crops. Some areas that are further behind developmentally would like to see some rain, however. A front will move through Sunday and Monday, but not bring much in the way of showers. Additional fronts may move through in the middle of next week and next weekend as well. Temperatures are forecasted to be warm, though fronts will likely bring through temporary bursts of cooler air, creating potential large swings in temperatures for early October.

HELENE BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHERN DELTA

An upper-level low stalled out in the Delta is pulling up the remnant low of Hurricane Helene back to the west on Friday, bringing heavy rain to northern areas before turning into lighter showers for the weekend. The pair of lows will be pushed eastward on Tuesday. The heavy rain could further degrade the quality of soybeans and cotton in the region awaiting harvest, but would aid water levels on the Mississippi River, especially with the rain moving into the Ohio Valley. We will have to watch the Gulf of Mexico for another potential system later next week.

HURRICANE HELENE DUMPED HEAVY RAIN ON SOUTHEAST

Hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida late on Thursday and is moving through northern Georgia and the Carolinas with heavy rain early Friday. The low will be pulled back across the Tennessee Valley and sit there into early next week with showers through Tuesday before it gets pushed eastward by a front. Heavy rain will degrade the remaining crop in the field, and open-boll cotton especially, but would obviously have a positive impact on the ongoing drought in the region. Dry conditions follow, but we will have to continue watching the Gulf of Mexico for another potential system later next week.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A couple of disturbances and low-pressure systems will move through the Canadian Prairies over the next week, but potential for significant rainfall is low. Heavy rain from last week caused delays to the remaining harvest, pulling progress closer to normal instead of being so early.

SLOW START TO THE WET SEASON IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front brought areas of heavy rain to southern Brazil this week and these areas have had good soil moisture for spring planting, though some areas are still dry. Spotty wet season showers are starting in central Brazil, in Mato Grosso specifically, but they will not be very consistent and it may take until deeper into October for them to do so. With how hot and dry it has been over the last several months, producers will likely wait longer to start planting soybeans. If they have to wait too long, it could cause significant issues for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Drought across western and northern Argentina has delayed the first round of corn planting, damaging to develop reproductive winter wheat. A front brought rain to northern areas Thursday, but were limited elsewhere. The next system comes early next week, but rainfall is forecasted to remain spotty as it moves through, largely missing the driest areas in the west.

BIG SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH EUROPE

A strong system moving through Europe will continue to bring widespread rainfall and strong winds Friday and Saturday, as well as a burst of cooler air. Another system will be possible early next week, spreading more rain through the continent. Streaks of heavy rain moved through France, Germany and the UK so far this week. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture, but could delay winter wheat planting where heavy in the northwest.

CONTINUED DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have adequate soil moisture, but the majority of eastern Ukraine and western Russia have endured heat and drought for several months, creating very poor conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment. A front produced very spotty rains in western areas Wednesday with another moving into that same area over the weekend, with more limited rainfall. Eastern areas continue to be missed by systems. Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue to be unfavorable for wheat, which has a limited time before frosts and freezes start to become more likely in October.

FAIR WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A system spread needed rainfall over eastern Australia over the last couple of days, which was needed. The system is bringing in some cold air though and created some frosts across the southeast, where crops are less developed but still vulnerable. Another system is passing through western areas with showers Friday, which may bring some limited precipitation to eastern areas this weekend. Another system is forecasted to move through next week, with better showers in the west.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com