Helene on the Edge of Hurricane Strength in the Gulf of Mexico

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy rain in the Corn Belt, what will be Hurricane Helene headed toward the Southeast U.S. and Ohio Valley. A weak start to the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN, POTENTIAL TROPICAL RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

A front brought widespread showers and some areas of heavy rain to the Midwest over the last several days. An upper-level low stalling to the southwest will bring the remnant low to eventual Hurricane Helene up into the southern end of the region Friday, with areas of heavy rain near the Ohio River that will turn into lighter showers going through the weekend. A front should push the lows out early next week and could have some showers of its own. Harvest could be impacted by rain, though winter wheat areas would like to see the increased moisture. The water moving into the Ohio Valley should help to reduce the drought there.

DRYING OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

An upper-level low has moved into the Central and Southern Plains and will get stuck in the east. Models have it far enough east now where precipitation largely doesn’t occur, even with the low pulling the remnants of Hurricane Helene westward toward the region later this week and weekend. Some may still occur, however. Otherwise, the lack of rainfall is a bit of a concern for winter wheat establishment. Though temperatures will be mild in most areas due to the upper low, they should be rising as the low moves east this weekend.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains should be dry through the weekend, favorable for maturing crops. Some areas that are further behind would like to see some rain, however. A front will move Sunday and Monday, but may not bring much in the way of showers. Temperatures are forecasted to be quite warm through next week, with a brief hiccup of milder air moving through behind that system.

HELENE MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHERN DELTA

An upper-level low is stalling out in the Delta and will pull up eventual Hurricane Helene into the U.S. on Thursday and Friday. The remnant low of the hurricane is forecasted to wrap back to the west on Friday, bringing potential heavy rain to northern areas before turning into lighter showers for the weekend. The pair of lows will be pushed eastward early next week. Any more bouts of heavy rain could further degrade the quality of soybeans and cotton in the region awaiting harvest, but would aid water levels on the Mississippi River, especially with the rain moving into the Ohio Valley.

SOUTHEAST PREPARING FOR HURRICANE HELENE

A front is moving into the Southeast on Wednesday with scattered showers and eventual Hurricane Helene is forecast to move in, making landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida late on Thursday. Though it should quickly dissipate from hurricane status as it moves northward, the remnant low and another upper-level low will spin around just off to the west for several days afterward, which could keep showers in the region into next week before getting pushed eastward. Heavy rain would likely degrade the remaining crops in the field. North Carolina is especially vulnerable as it has been pummeled with heavy rainfall lately and would not benefit from any more.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A couple of disturbances and low-pressure systems will move through the Canadian Prairies for the rest of this week and next, but potential for significant rainfall is low. Heavy rain from last week probably caused delays to the remaining harvest, however.

SLOW START TO THE WET SEASON IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front has stalled over far southern Brazil where areas of heavy rain have occurred this week. Showers will finally move northward later in the week but dissipate as they do so. The recent rainfall has been good for increasing soil moisture for spring planting, but some areas are still very dry. Spotty wet season showers will start in central Brazil, and Mato Grosso specifically, by the weekend. However, with how hot and dry it has been over the last several months, producers will likely wait longer to start planting when the showers become more consistent later in October. If they have to wait too long, it could cause significant issues for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Drought across western and northern Argentina has delayed corn planting and been damaging to developing to reproductive winter wheat. A front stalled in northern areas this week, but showers have been very limited to small sections in the northeast. The front moves northward on Thursday. The next significant system will not come until early next week, but rainfall is currently forecast to remain spotty as it moves through.

BIG SYSTEM FOR EUROPE

A system is moving east through Europe with very few showers now after dumping a lot of rain in the west. But it is quickly followed by a stronger system now moving into the west. That will bring more widespread rainfall and strong winds for the next couple of days, as well as a burst of cooler air. Another system will be possible early next week, spreading more rain through the continent. The heaviest rains are forecast for France, Germany, and the UK. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture, but could delay winter wheat planting where heavy.

CONTINUED DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have adequate soil moisture, but the majority of eastern Ukraine and western Russia have endured heat and drought for several months, creating very poor conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment. A front will move into western areas Wednesday with another over the weekend, but they may not produce much precipitation and fizzle out before reaching eastern areas. Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue to be unfavorable for wheat, which has a limited time before frosts and freezes start to become more likely in October.

AUSTRALIA GETTING NEEDED RAIN

It had been overall dry in Australia lately, unfavorable for vegetative to reproductive wheat and canola. But a system is spreading rainfall over eastern areas the next two days, which is needed. The system will bring through some cold air though and could cause frosts across the southeast, where crops are less developed but still vulnerable. Another system will pass through western areas with showers Thursday and Friday. The front to that system may or may not bring much precipitation to eastern areas this weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com