Hot and Dry Conditions Expected for South and East

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A change in the pattern toward hot this weekend, but with limited showers for the south and east, wet weather in parts of Europe, and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAT INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A front moving into and stalling in the northwestern Midwest this weekend will remain active through much of next week. Eastern areas are less likely to see rainfall but could see some as models disagree on where precipitation occurs. Temperatures will be much more consistently hot starting Sunday, lasting through most of next week, which could start to stress areas that do not receive rain, particularly across the east.

HOT AND SHOWERY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will stay active across the Central Plains for Friday, but a much larger system will push a front into the region over the weekend and stall, with widespread precipitation forecast through next week, especially in Nebraska. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat at times. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures in the area, which will be very hot when showers and clouds are not occurring.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will move into the Northern Plains on Friday night and its front will stall out in or near the region, waffling around all of next week. That will bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms through next week, which may produce some flooding in some parts of the region.

QUIETER, HOTTER IN THE DELTA

Dry weather is likely in the Delta through Saturday, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico start to produce showers and thunderstorms in the region starting Sunday. Any rainfall right now looks to be light and spotty. Temperatures will start to rise, likely being hot and stressful, especially if showers do not develop.

COOL AND RAINY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A larger system moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday and brings more widespread precipitation through the region through the weekend. The storm track will be near or through the region for next week, with multiple disturbances being possible to bring showers through, resulting in some areas of moderate to heavy rain. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas.

RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Dry conditions with warm temperatures in most areas are helping safrinha corn to mature in Brazil but are not favorable for the portion of the crop that is still immature. A front moving into the south this weekend will produce rain into next week. That is not favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where they still need time to dry out more, but will be for any showers that can move north for immature safrinha corn.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

A front will move through Argentina on Friday with limited rainfall, but systems that follow behind it could offer some additional moisture going into the second half of the month. That would be more helpful for winter wheat planting and establishment. Colder air will become a possibility by late next week, being unfavorable, though models are not consistent with colder air.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWESTERN EUROPE

Eastern Europe is seeing brief relief from hot temperatures but will find additional warmth returning over the weekend and continuing through next week. An upper-level low-pressure center will continue to bring more unfavorable rainfall to the UK, France, and parts of Germany that have not had many breaks in the wet pattern that has been in place for months. Another extension of this low-pressure center moves through early next week with more showers there as well.

LIMITED RELIEF FOR BLACK SEA

A front and a system will move through the Black Sea region over the weekend into early next week. Meaningful rainfall is forecast for parts of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which is needed for immature wheat and developing corn and sunflowers, though wheat is largely out of time to benefit in most areas. Hot and largely dry conditions there have been damaging. Though temperatures will take a small reprieve with the system, they will increase next week while it dries out again, a poor prospect for corn and sunflowers.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIA

A system is bringing limited showers through eastern Australia Friday. Though it has not been especially wet this week, the change to La Nina should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months. There are several chances for rain next week and overall conditions for winter wheat and canola are favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com