Hurricane Building Toward Gulf of Mexico

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent and forecast heavy rain moving through the Corn Belt, another hurricane headed through the Gulf of Mexico and an eye toward the start of the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE MIDWEST

A front brought widespread showers and some areas of heavy rain to the Midwest the last few days. A low-pressure center on it will move through Tuesday with scattered showers. An upper-level low stalling to the southwest will bring a hurricane up into the Southeast. It could get farther north into the region late this week and weekend with scattered showers most likely for southern areas, although it could be more widespread depending on how the two lows interact. A front should push the lows out early next week and could have some showers of its own. Harvest could be impacted by rain, though winter wheat areas would like to see the increased moisture.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front and a system forming along it produced areas of heavy rain from the northern Texas Panhandle into southeast Kansas with more limited showers elsewhere this past weekend. An upper-level low is moving into the region on Tuesday and will get stuck in the east, producing occasional periods of showers, possibly into next week. The low will interact with a hurricane later this week and the forecast could be erratic. Temperatures will be milder with the upper low moving in, but rise this weekend as it drifts east.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A few showers moved through the Northern Plains on Monday, but the region should be dry through the weekend, favorable for maturing crops. Some areas that are further behind would like to see some rain, however, and may find it with a front moving through early next week. After being milder this past weekend, temperatures will be warmer this week.

HURRICANE MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO DELTA

An upper-level low will stall out in the Delta on Tuesday and pull up a hurricane later this week, which may bring in periods of heavy rain depending on how the two interact. The two lows will spin around into early next week before getting pushed eastward, and several days of rain will be possible. Any more bouts of heavy rain could further degrade the quality of soybeans and cotton in the region but would aid water levels on the Mississippi River.

SOUTHEAST PREPARING FOR ANOTHER HURRICANE

A front will move into the Southeast on Wednesday and a hurricane is forecasted to move north late on Thursday. Though it should quickly dissipate from hurricane status as it moves northward. The remnant low and another upper-level low will spin around just off to the west for several days afterward, which could keep showers in the region into next week before getting pushed eastward. Heavy rain would likely degrade the remaining crops in the field. North Carolina is especially vulnerable as it has been pummeled with heavy rainfall lately and would not benefit from any more.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system moved through the Canadian Prairies this weekend with widespread showers. A couple of little disturbances will move through this week and weekend, but potential for significant rainfall is low. Heavy rain from last week probably caused delays to the remaining harvest, however.

CENTRAL BRAZIL EYEING THE START OF THE WET SEASON

A front brought scattered showers to southern Brazil this weekend and another has stalled over the far south early this week. Showers will finally move northward later in the week but dissipate as it does so. The recent rainfall has been good for increasing soil moisture for spring planting, but some areas are still very dry. Spotty wet season showers will start in central Brazil and Mato Grosso especially by the weekend. However, with how hot and dry it has been over the last several months, producers will likely wait longer to start planting when the showers become more consistent later in October. If they have to wait too long, it could cause significant issues for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

A front moved into Argentina over the weekend, but showers were largely relegated to eastern Buenos Aires, an area that has good soil moisture. Drought farther west and north has delayed corn planting and been damaging to developing reproductive winter wheat. That front has gotten stuck in northern areas, where showers may continue in the northeast through Thursday, but most areas will stay dry. The next significant system would not come until early next week, but rainfall is currently forecast to remain spotty.

BIG SYSTEM FOR EUROPE

A system developed across western Europe this weekend with scattered showers and is moving east with variable showers the next day or two. It will be followed by a stronger system later this week. That will bring more widespread rainfall, strong winds and a burst of cooler air. Another system will be possible early next week, spreading more rain through the continent. The heaviest rains are forecast for France, Germany and the UK. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture, but could delay winter wheat planting where heavy.

HOT AND DRY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have adequate soil moisture, but the majority of eastern Ukraine and western Russia have endured heat and drought for several months, creating very poor conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment. A front will move into western areas Wednesday with another over the weekend, but they may not produce much precipitation and fizzle out before reaching eastern areas. Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue to be unfavorable for wheat, which has a limited time before frosts and freezes start to become more likely in October.

AUSTRALIA GETTING NEEDED RAIN

It has been overall dry in Australia lately, unfavorable for vegetative to reproductive wheat and canola. A system will try to spread rainfall over eastern areas in the next few days, which is needed. The system will bring through some cold air though and could cause frosts across the southeast, where crops are less developed but still vulnerable. Another system will pass through western areas with showers late week. The front to that system may or may not bring much precipitation to eastern areas this weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com