Hurricane Helene Coming Ashore Thursday

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy rain in the Corn Belt, Hurricane Helene headed for the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and a weak start to the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

RECENT AND FORECAST HEAVY RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

A front brought widespread showers and some areas of heavy rain to the Midwest the last several days. An upper-level low stalling to the southwest will bring the remnant low of Hurricane Helene up into the southern end of the region Friday, with areas of heavy rain near the Ohio River that will turn into lighter showers going through the weekend. A front should push the lows out early next week and could have some showers of its own. Harvest could be impacted by the recent and forecast rain, though winter wheat areas would like to see the increased moisture. The water moving into the Ohio Valley should help to reduce the drought there and build water levels for the Mississippi River as well.

DRYING OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

An upper-level low has moved into the eastern portions of the Central and Southern Plains. It will keep temperatures down for the next couple of days, but then they will rise going into next week. Though a couple of fronts may come through next week, precipitation is not forecasted. The lack of rainfall is a bit of a concern for winter wheat establishment.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

The Northern Plains should be dry through the weekend, favorable for maturing crops. Some areas that are further behind would like to see some rain, however. A front will move in on Sunday and Monday, but not bring much in the way of showers. Temperatures are forecasted to be quite warm into next week, though another front will move through in the middle of next week and could bring a brief burst of cooler air.

HELENE MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHERN DELTA

An upper-level low is stalling out in the Delta and will pull up Hurricane Helene into the U.S. on Thursday and Friday. The remnant low of the hurricane is forecast to wrap back to the west on Friday, bringing potential heavy rain to northern areas before turning into lighter showers for the weekend. The pair of lows will be pushed eastward early next week. Any more bouts of heavy rain could further degrade the quality of soybeans and cotton in the region awaiting harvest, but would aid water levels on the Mississippi River, especially with the rain moving into the Ohio Valley.

HURRICANE HELENE ARRIVES IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING

Hurricane Helene will make landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida late on Thursday. Though it should quickly dissipate from hurricane status as it moves northward, the remnant low and another upper-level low will spin around just off to the west for several days afterward, which could keep showers in the region into next week before getting pushed eastward. Heavy rain would likely degrade the remaining crop in the field and open-boll cotton especially, but would obviously have a positive impact on the ongoing drought in the region.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A couple of disturbances and low-pressure systems will move through the Canadian Prairies over the next week, but potential for significant rainfall is low. Heavy rain from last week probably caused delays to the remaining harvest, however.

SLOW START TO THE WET SEASON IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front that had stalled over far southern Brazil will move northward Thursday but fizzle out as it continues north on Friday. Some areas of heavy rain have fallen recently, good for increasing soil moisture for spring planting, but some areas are still very dry. Spotty wet season showers will start in central Brazil, and Mato Grosso specifically, by the weekend. However, they will not be very consistent and it may take until deeper into October for them to do so. With how hot and dry it has been over the last several months, producers will likely wait longer to start planting soybeans. If they have to wait too long, it could cause significant issues for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops.

LIMITED RAIN IN ARGENTINA

Drought across western and northern Argentina has delayed corn planting and been damaging to developing to reproductive winter wheat. A front stalled in northern areas is moving north on Thursday, but showers have been very limited. The next significant system comes early next week, but rainfall is currently forecast to remain spotty as it moves through, largely missing the driest areas in the west.

BIG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A strong system moving through Europe will continue to bring widespread rainfall and strong winds for the next couple of days, as well as a burst of cooler air. Another system will be possible early next week, spreading more rain through the continent. The heaviest rains are forecast for France, Germany, and the UK. Rainfall would help to maintain or improve soil moisture, but could delay winter wheat planting where heavy.

CONTINUED DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have adequate soil moisture, but the majority of eastern Ukraine and western Russia have endured heat and drought for several months, creating very poor conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment. A front produced very spotty rains in western areas Wednesday with another moving into that area over the weekend, with more limited rainfall. Eastern areas continue to be missed by systems. Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue to be unfavorable for wheat, which has a limited time before frosts and freezes start to become more likely in October.

AUSTRALIA GETTING NEEDED RAIN

A system spread needed rainfall over eastern Australia the last couple of days, which was needed, and continues with some showers in the northeast for Friday. The system is bringing in some cold air though and could cause frosts across the southeast, where crops are less developed but still vulnerable. Another system is passing through western areas with showers Thursday and Friday. The front to that system may or may not bring much precipitation to eastern areas this weekend and more systems are lining up to move through next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com