Intense Cold Quickly Leaving, Pattern Staying Active
A brief shot of cold air and dryness in the southwestern Plains during an active U.S. weather pattern and scattered showers in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.
MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A brief shot of cold air and dryness in the southwestern Plains during an active U.S. weather pattern and scattered showers in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.
BRIEF SHOT OF COLD, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR MIDWEST
A burst of cold air settled into the Midwest on Thursday. That has been enough to produce some streaks of light snow and open up the lake-effect snow machine for a couple of days. But warmer air will spread back into the region over the weekend and so will a chance for showers with a system that brings in the warmer air. A couple of systems next week may bring a mix of rain and snow that could help with the ongoing drought situation.
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
A system will produce showers across the eastern Plains on Friday but amounts do not look heavy. Some storm systems next week could bring in some better precipitation but are focusing on the southeast, an area of the region that has some drought and will benefit from it. The southwest looks to be bypassed by most of this precipitation, which has been dry after a very wet November. Nebraska is also forecast to be drier, the spot in the region that has the worst drought.
ARCTIC BURST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, COLD LINGERING NEARBY NEXT WEEK
A burst of cold air continues in the Northern Plains on Thursday but will then be replaced by warm air on Friday. Several systems will move through the region this weekend through next week and bring down some colder air that pools up in Canada briefly behind each system. But precipitation looks to be light as the storm systems move through the region. Drought areas throughout much of the region would prefer the precipitation to occur and be heavier.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY BE MORE HELPFUL FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
Recent showers in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will give a brief bump to water levels on the river over the next week, but much more is needed. The gauge in Memphis fell below the low water threshold again and that will likely lead to some restrictions for transportation. The pattern may get a little more favorable and active across the basin this weekend and next week, but it is uncertain if it will benefit the river systems to any significant degree.
OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONTINUES IN BRAZIL
Overall good weather conditions continue in Brazil as scattered wet season showers restarted in central states and fronts continue to come up from Argentina with scattered showers for southern states. This general pattern is set to continue through next week, favoring flowering to filling soybeans and developing corn.
SOME DRYNESS CONCERNS IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA
A system is moving through Argentina through Friday with scattered showers, but will favor the west and north. Some of the important areas will stay dry across the central and south, unfavorable for developing corn and soybeans there. Mild temperatures will keep water demand down through next week, but the country needs more rain. The next chance would be mid- to late-next week but showers look scattered again. While issues are only spotty currently, we could see more trouble spots expanding with the pattern continuing to favor scattered showers instead of widespread heavy rain.
TOO WET IN NORTHWEST EUROPE
Light showers continue across southern Europe for the next few days. Organized rainfall may return to portions of the continent this weekend and several systems look to continue the rainfall through most of the continent through the end of the year. Areas in the northwest where wheat is still active have found conditions that are too wet. Otherwise, the continued rainfall should help to boost soil moisture for areas that have been too dry. Parts of Spain and the northeast could use more rain but will have some chance to do so.
DRIER IN AUSTRALIA
Recent rainfall in eastern Australia has improved conditions for cotton and sorghum development. The remaining wheat and canola harvest has needed to dodge the rain, but drier conditions this week have allowed soils to drain and fieldwork to resume. The pattern is a bit drier for the rest of the month, with systems bringing through isolated showers instead of organized clusters and lines. While most areas can handle some period of dryness, it is not a favorable look for developing cotton and sorghum.
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com