Models Increasing Precipitation During ‘Drier’ Pattern

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Increasing precipitation during a stretch of drier weather in the U.S., wet weather in parts of Europe, and heat and dryness in the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Isolated showers will continue in the Midwest through the weekend. A small system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday and models have just added another disturbance with some showers for Wednesday and Thursday; but amounts look to be light and widely scattered, allowing many areas to dry out for the remaining planting or replanting. Temperatures will also be cooler than normal by a couple of degrees through the middle of next week before rising. Soil moisture remains high in most areas for early growth.

ANOTHER ACTIVE FRONT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Recent precipitation has been more widespread and gone through some of the drought areas of the Central and Southern Plains with good rainfall amounts. A stalled front in the region will produce showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with potential continuing on Monday as it drifts south. Another system moving across the north could bring some showers and thunderstorms through on Tuesday and models have just added a new disturbance for midweek as well. Though some areas of flooding have developed, and those left to plant may have some difficult conditions, the rainfall is good for early growth in most areas.

RAINFALL FORECAST INCREASING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Despite some isolated showers possible at times, drier weather is expected for most areas of the Northern Plains through the weekend. The drier weather is preferred in some areas of the eastern Dakotas for remaining planting and boosting crop conditions. A system will go through early next week with some showers, and models have added another system for midweek as well, but rainfall should be patchy and mostly light. The pattern gets more active again late next week.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR DELTA

A stalled front could produce more rainfall in the Delta this weekend into early next week for a few areas but is not forecast to be widespread. Models have increased the shower potential with a couple of small disturbances for next week, though overall rainfall amounts for the region are not heavy. Temperatures will trend mild to even a couple of degrees below normal for a few days next week, keeping stress low for developing crops, but will then rise for late in the week.

SHOWERS CONTINUING, COOLER FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Isolated showers may dot the Canadian Prairies through the weekend, but drier conditions are likely for more areas than not. A system may bring more scattered showers to eastern areas early next week and models have added a new disturbance moving through with isolated showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A storm system is likely to move in late in the week and especially over the weekend as the more-active pattern continues despite the overall change. Soil moisture is much improved and early growth should find mostly good conditions where flooding is not an issue. Temperatures continue to be on the cooler side, with slight risks of frost in the northwest.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR BRAZIL

Dry conditions with increasing temperatures continue to be unfavorable for safrinha corn areas that are still immature in Brazil, but most of the crop is heading more toward maturity and early harvest has started. Southern areas are seeing flood waters recede and soils dry out. Some winter wheat planting may start up, but the damage to infrastructure and continued wet soils probably keep this slow. The chances for rain develop again for later next week and weekend across the south.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

Dry conditions have continued to favor corn and soybean harvest in Argentina, but not winter wheat planting and establishment. A couple of fronts could produce showers over southern areas this weekend with more potential for next week, but generally look light and still unfavorable for wheat. Temperatures are much warmer but are forecast to fall dramatically next weekend behind a large cold front, bringing frost potential back into the country.

FRONT CONTINUES SHOWERS IN EUROPE

A front is settling west-east from northern Spain to western Ukraine, producing a zone which will see scattered showers continuing into next week. Some of these areas will welcome the rain while others will not. Heat south of the front may be stressful for those that are drier.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY IN BLACK SEA

Hot and dry conditions continue to be a concern for both heading winter wheat and developing corn and sunflowers in the Black Sea region. A front will stall in northwestern areas, bringing favorable showers to those areas through next week. But areas to the south and east, where most of the wheat is grown, will stay unfavorably hot and dry.

MORE FRONTS MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

Precipitation has increased in Australia recently as more systems are moving through the country instead of south of it. Another front is going through western areas Friday with another over the weekend that is likely to get into eastern areas next week, and more systems are lining up behind it with varying degrees of forecast precipitation. With the switch to La Nina continuing to develop, the prospect for rainfall should continue to increase over the next few months, very favorable for winter crop establishment and development with time.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com