More Heavy Rain and Severe Weather Through Holiday Weekend

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Continued heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather in the U.S., wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE STORMS FOR MIDWEST

A front near the Ohio River has been active the last couple of days and continues that way Friday. A system is pushing through Friday with scattered thunderstorms and more severe weather. The final system in the incredibly active pattern moves through Sunday and Monday, though showers may linger into Tuesday. After a few days’ break next week, another system will come through late next week and weekend. Only limited areas are going to be lucky enough to be dry, an unusual statement as we head into summer. Planting windows continue to be short, though producers have been taking advantage of their limited opportunities.

ANOTHER FRONT AND SYSTEM FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front across the south and another system moving through will keep the Central and Southern Plains active through Sunday, causing severe weather and areas of heavy rain over portions of the region, except in the southwest, that continues to deal with drought. Temperatures will fluctuate but will be milder next week. A system moving into the region in the middle of next week could make for some more active weather going into the weekend, initially in the High Plains, and then farther east. That may be enough to get rainfall into the drier southwest.

STILL ACTIVE THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A system moving through Friday and a couple of disturbances that follow will keep the pattern active through Monday. Cooler temperatures will stay in place through Tuesday and may cause some snow to mix in on Friday across North Dakota. Cold may also produce some limited frosts that will not help with germinating crops. After a brief break, another system will move through with showers mid to late next week.

FRONT, SYSTEMS CAUSING HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN DELTA

A stalled front in the northern half of the Delta region has been active with thunderstorms the last couple of days and continues for Friday, causing heavy rain and severe weather potential. Additional storm systems may go through this weekend and early next week that could get more of the region active as well. A drier stretch is likely to develop after Monday, though it may only last until the following weekend.

COLD AND WET IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The storm track has been farther south, but showers have still developed in the Canadian Prairies with a trough overhead, which continues across the east on Friday, where some heavy rain may mix with snow, and across the south this weekend into next week. A larger storm system is likely to move through mid to late next week with more scattered showers. Any rain will continue to make planting progress slower, but also help to ease drought conditions. Cooler temperatures in place will rise early next week but will likely turn colder behind next week’s system.

SOME RAIN FOR SAFRINHA CORN IN SOUTH-CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil shifts northward through Monday, where showers will get into southern safrinha corn growing areas, favorable for any crop it rains on. Recent heavy rain in Rio Grande do Sul continues to produce flooding and damage for the region. A drier stretch of weather is expected next week.

WIDESPREAD FROSTS IN ARGENTINA

Cold and dry conditions continue across Argentina well into next week, though northeastern saw some showers with a front on Wednesday and Thursday. The cold is producing more frosts, unfavorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier weather will increase the remaining corn and soybean harvest.

WESTERN EUROPE STAYING WET

Though there is no real system in the area, showers are continuing across much of Europe, including those areas that are too wet in France and Germany. The wetter weather is unfavorable for wheat development and spring planting that needs some sun and drier conditions. Showers will get into drier areas in the east, however, being more favorable there. A couple of systems are forecast to move through next week, continuing showers where they are not needed, but bringing some to other places that could use it.

DRYNESS CONCERNS CONTINUE IN BLACK SEA

A front that moved through the Black Sea region this week did not produce much of any precipitation and dryness continues to be a large-scale concern. A disturbance moving into the Black Sea could produce showers near there this weekend into early next week, but most areas are likely to stay dry. Dryness is becoming critical for wheat that started off in good shape this spring. Summer crops are also dealing with dwindling soil moisture that is unfavorable.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA

Dry conditions last through the weekend for most of Australia. A few systems may move into the country next week and models are more optimistic now about bringing some needed showers through. Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to trend toward a favorable La Nina scenario over the next several weeks that offers better chances for needed rainfall for winter crops with time.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com