More Heavy Rain for Central US Despite Uncertainty with Next Week’s Storm

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy precipitation and drought reduction in the Plains and Midwest, another big storm there for next week, and overall fair weather for now in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

BIG STORM FOR MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

A system produced widespread showers and areas of moderate to heavy rain in the Midwest this week, further helping the drought situation in some areas. A few showers may move through this weekend. But a much larger storm will develop next week, likely in two pieces, and should bring more widespread precipitation to the region as it slowly spins around for several days. The details are still being worked out in the models and there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to timing, amounts and type. Regardless, it should still help to reduce drought and boost soil moisture for winter wheat.

BIG STORM NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

Recent rain and snow have significantly increased soil moisture across the Central and Southern Plains, though areas of Colorado and New Mexico are still buried in snow that will not be helpful for winter wheat. Temperatures continue to be above normal except for areas covered in snow. A much bigger system will move through Sunday and Monday with another round of heavier rain. Another burst of showers may follow midweek. Models still disagree on the potential for precipitation. Temperatures are likely to take a dive after that system moves through, but maybe only for a couple of days as they rise again next weekend.

BIG QUESTIONS FOR BIG STORM FOR NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

A system should produce a few showers in the Northern Plains this weekend. But a much bigger storm should develop early next week with more widespread precipitation, including potential for heavy snow. The driest areas along the Montana-Dakota borders may not get much precipitation, however. Temperatures will fall with that system midweek but may rise above normal again next weekend. There is a lot of model uncertainty for this region.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS BOOSTED BY RECENT RAINFALL, NEED MORE

Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. More rain is needed in the Ohio Valley to maintain or make long-lasting improvements. A storm that moves through slowly next week will likely be helpful as well.

TIME BETWEEN SHOWERS IS GREATER IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in Central Brazil, being favorable for soybean establishment. Southern areas have been a bit drier lately and soil moisture may be falling. But another system will move through early next week, that could mean better coverage and amounts across the south. Overall conditions are still mostly favorable in the country.

MORE RAIN IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Systems are moving through Argentina with less frequency lately and may be concerning if they only bring scattered showers instead of widespread rain. A system will move through this weekend into early next week and some areas may be missed. Those that could see falling soil moisture and poorer conditions developing, but conditions are still mostly favorable. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.

WIDESPREAD, HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR EUROPE NEXT WEEK

Dryness in eastern Europe has been decreasing soil moisture as winter wheat starts to go dormant from north to south. Southeastern areas are worse off than other areas, but most of the continent has plenty of moisture. A long-lasting storm system will develop next week with more widespread waves of precipitation through much of the continent.

RAINFALL MAY BE PICKING UP IN AUSTRALIA

Very limited showers have been moving through Australia lately and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that has promoted fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next two weeks, with heavier showers in New South Wales and Queensland this weekend and in parts of Western Australia next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com