More Heavy Rain for Central US This Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Areas of heavy rain moving through the Central U.S. and overall good weather in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

Waves of showers moved into the Midwest over the weekend, being heavy in some areas from Missouri to Wisconsin. Two more waves of showers will move through the region through early Wednesday, building soil moisture but disrupting the last of harvest. After a few days’ break, another system will move through over the weekend with more rounds of rain. The active pattern continues to favor reducing drought and building soil moisture before winter and should improve winter wheat conditions.

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms developed across the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, including some severe weather and flooding. The last round of rain from this particular system moves through on Monday, which will bring more meaningful precipitation to western Kansas that has been missed so far. An upper-level low will move down the Rockies and into the Southwest on Wednesday, with showers building across the west for the end of the week. That could include some very heavy snow for Colorado. The low will move northeast through the region over the weekend, spreading more showers through. The recent and coming rain will continue to reduce drought and build soil moisture for winter wheat.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers fell over the Dakotas this weekend, disrupting the remaining harvest, but building in some soil moisture. Another system will move through western areas Monday night into Wednesday and could bring some snow outside of the mountains. Outside of some colder temperatures there, above normal temperatures are favored this week.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS WILL GET A BUMP THIS WEEK AND NEXT

Water levels on the Mississippi River had been very low, but the recent and forecast rain is likely to bump up levels in the upper basin this week and the lower basin next week. The Mississippi River would need the Ohio Valley to get more rain to help bolster more long-term support, but will take the small bursts of help from the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Rivers as well.

WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in Central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Soybean planting has reached the normal pace and the risk of significant late plantings of safrinha corn will now look to the potential for heavy rain at soybean harvest and corn planting. Otherwise, good growing conditions are currently found throughout most of the country. Southern areas got rainfall over the weekend and coming waves of showers from fronts moving through Brazil continue to be awfully favorable for the time being.

NEEDED RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A system moved through Argentina over the weekend with scattered showers. Another will move through on Monday and Tuesday. Some additional spotty showers continue over the rest of the week before the next system moves in over the weekend. Overall favorable conditions continue to be present in the country, though the threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

DRIER THROUGH MOST OF EUROPE

Some showers continue over the Iberian Peninsula early this week with a dying subtropical storm moving in. Showers may redevelop there and maybe France toward the end of the week as well. But the remainder of the continent is likely to be dry. The dryness is starting to be a problem again in the eastern half where soil moisture deficits are growing. The dryness had been favorable in the northwest, but some areas could use a little rain now, too.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Very limited showers moved through Australia over the weekend, but most areas have been dry for a while now and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, but the forecast is calling for light and spotty rainfall with these systems.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com