More Rain, Severe Weather for Central US

and severe storms, poor weather in Europe and the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil, and heavy rain in northern Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RAIN NEARLY CONTINUOUS FOR MIDWEST

The pattern stays active for the Midwest and the gap between storms remains short as another system moves across the region through Friday, one moves through this weekend, and another is eyeing the region early next week. Long-term deficits are being eroded quickly in some areas like Missouri, but wet field conditions are going to slow planting down quite a bit. Not all areas are getting heavy rain though and may find some gaps between thunderstorms to continue working. The moisture is likely to be needed for the summer, which could be overall beneficial even if it delays planting.

STORMS CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The pattern continues to be active in the Central and Southern Plains with multiple storm systems moving through over the next 10 days, keeping planting slower and aiding soil moisture in many areas. However, flooding may still be a concern across some areas. The southwest is not in a favored location for getting precipitation into the area this week, but possibly on Sunday. Wheat conditions are likely to continue falling if significant rain does not come soon.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Moderate rain fell across the Northern Plains on Tuesday and more showers are expected to move through the region through Friday. After a very short break, a much stronger system is forecast to move in on Sunday or Monday with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. The active weather will make it difficult to get out into the field in some areas but help to ease the remaining drought and add soil moisture.

DELTA MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN ACTIVE PATTERN

The Delta region continues to be wet, but the gaps between rains have been longer than areas farther north and west. Even with all the rain, planting progress has been quick this spring. Scattered showers will be moving through at times though and could slow down additional progress.

COOL AND WET IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A cold and active pattern will bring multiple storm systems through the region over the next two weeks, which may help bring additional moisture over the expansive drought, but slow planting progress and could contain some snow as it will also be colder than normal most days as well.

HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Much of the safrinha corn growing areas in central Brazil will be dry for the foreseeable future, though far northern areas may see some isolated showers at times. That means that it is also hot, which will force corn to use up its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crops will become more apparent with time as soil moisture runs low. Rio Grande do Sul, which is amid corn and soybean harvest and winter wheat planting in the far south, is seeing fronts waffle around in the region that will keep them wet through next week, disrupting the remaining harvest and planting. Those fronts may get into the far southern safrinha growing areas of Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul at times, but that is not forecast to amount very much.

ACTIVE SHOWERS, SOME FROST FOR ARGENTINA

A front will continue to waffle around northern Argentina through next week as disturbances move through the country. Those disturbances will bring occasional showers to southern areas but heavier rain farther north with the front. That will make corn and soybean harvest more difficult when the rain occurs. Cold air will build behind the front this week and may lead to frosts on Thursday and Friday. Cold air moving back next week may do the same.

CONTINUED WETNESS IN WESTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers continue in western Europe, which is bad news for the UK and France which continue to be too wet, but favorable for Spain. A system will continue to spin in the region the next couple of days but is transferring showers across the south later this week. Another system goes through the continent this weekend into next week with more rain. Temperatures will be generally warmer for the next week outside of Spain where it will be cooler. That largely flips for later next week.

LIMITED SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FROST FOR BLACK SEA

Isolated showers fell in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia over the last few days, but most areas have been unfavorably dry. A front will move through later this week that could bring some cold temperatures and a stronger one will move through next week. It might be cold enough for frost, but cooler temperatures would be beneficial for reducing moisture demand for dry soil. Neither of these fronts has much precipitation forecast with them as dryness continues to be an issue.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system is bringing some showers through western Australia through Thursday, and some showers are developing on the East Coast as well. A system should make its way through eastern areas late this week and weekend, which would bring some beneficial rain, but to a somewhat limited area, mostly in New South Wales. Wheat planting continues to increase and the hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino continues its march toward La Nina over the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com