Much Uncertainty for Big Storm Next Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy precipitation in the Plains and Midwest, big storm potential for next week, and overall fair weather for now in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK, BIG STORM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

A system will move through the Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers. Another will likely move through Canada this weekend but may still bring a few showers through. A much larger storm will develop next week and is likely to bring more widespread precipitation to the region, though the details for that system are still being worked out in the models. The continued active pattern should help to reduce drought and boost soil moisture for winter wheat.

BIG STORM POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

A small system is moving out of the Central and Southern Plains early Wednesday after bringing some streaky rainfall Tuesday night. Recent rain and snow have significantly increased soil moisture across the region, though areas of Colorado and New Mexico are buried in snow that will not be helpful for winter wheat. Temperatures will generally be above normal except for areas covered in snow. A much bigger system should move through next week, that may mean a lot more precipitation, but models are all over the board with the precipitation potential. Temperatures are likely to take a dive after that system moves through next week.

BIG STORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK?

A system is bringing a few showers to the eastern Dakotas early Wednesday and another system should produce a few more this weekend. But a much bigger storm should develop next week with heavier and more widespread precipitation. Temperatures will generally stay above normal until that bigger storm moves in next week, with a larger drop expected. Overall drought continues to increase, though some areas are worse than others. That could change if the system next week indeed is a big one in the region.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS BOOSTED BY RECENT RAINFALL, NEED MORE

Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. But for the River to have sustained improvements, more precipitation needs to fall in the Ohio Valley. Some good amounts went through this past weekend and the region will see a bigger system moving through next week that should help as well.

TIME BETWEEN SHOWERS IS GREATER IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for soybean establishment. Southern areas have been a bit drier lately and soil moisture may be falling. But another system will move through next week that could mean better coverage and amounts. Overall conditions are still mostly favorable in the country.

DRY IN ARGENTINA, MORE RAIN THIS WEEKEND

Systems are moving through Argentina with less frequency lately and may be concerning if they only bring scattered showers instead of widespread rain. A system will move through this weekend into early next week and some areas may be missed. Those that could see falling soil moisture and poorer conditions developing, but conditions are still mostly favorable. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.

LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EUROPE THIS WEEK, HEAVIER NEXT WEEK

Dryness in eastern Europe has been decreasing soil moisture as winter wheat starts to go dormant from north to south. Southeastern areas are worse off than other areas. A small system drifted southwest through the west early this week with scattered showers. A more long-lasting storm system may develop next week with more widespread waves of precipitation.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Very limited showers have been moving through Australia lately and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next two weeks, with heavier showers in New South Wales and Queensland this weekend and parts of Western Australia next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com