Not Much of a Break Between Storms

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Continued heavy rain, flooding and severe weather in the U.S., wet weather in western Europe, and continued dryness in the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN STORMS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR MIDWEST

Heavy rain went through the Midwest over the holiday weekend as did severe weather, especially on Sunday across the south. An upper-level trough will keep showers and thunderstorms going through Tuesday and across the far east on Wednesday. After a couple of days’ break, another system will approach the west on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms that will continue to spread eastward going through the weekend. A front will be left behind in the region and continue showers early next week as well. Short breaks between storm systems and rainfall have made it difficult for those yet to plant to finish up and flooding has been an issue in many areas, especially in the southwest. The recurrence of widespread rainfall by late this week will continue that threat for late planting and some flooded areas may not be replanted.

DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and severe weather went through the Central and Southern Plains over the holiday weekend. A leftover front across the south will continue to be very active Tuesday and Wednesday with more risks of severe storms. A different front will push into the region on Wednesday and slowly pivot around the area through the weekend and even lasting into next week. Every day should feature precipitation somewhere in the region through at least June 3, which is a good prospect for getting some precipitation into drier parts of the region, but could cause damage or flooding in some others.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers went through the Northern Plains over the holiday weekend. Another system will move through Wednesday and Thursday with some isolated showers continuing afterward into next week. Any heavy amounts are likely to be very isolated, with more light to moderate rainfall across the region, which should leave enough holes for producers to continue planting while giving new seedlings some rainfall to continue growing.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR DELTA

Waves of showers and thunderstorms moved through the Delta over the holiday weekend, particularly across the north. A front remains in the region and may activate and produce some showers for southern areas through Thursday. Additional fronts and systems will be close by starting Friday and lasting through next week, which at least gives northern areas more chances for rain. Southern areas may find that as well. Although some flooding potential is possible, the rain is overall favorable for developing crops.

ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, though there were many breaks between showers, which may have allowed for some better planting windows. Another system will slowly move through the region Wednesday through Friday and the storm track will try to move farther north again for this weekend and next week, which brings more opportunity for rain through the region. Temperatures should fluctuate between systems, but overall do not look particularly cold, which should limit potential for frosts.

DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers went through southern Brazil over the weekend, including some safrinha corn areas. Dry weather follows for this week, which will help flooded areas in the south to recover a bit, though that will take a lot of time.

WIDESPREAD FROSTS IN ARGENTINA

Cold and dry conditions over the weekend produced widespread frosts in Argentina, which is unfavorable for winter wheat planting. The dryness continues to favor corn and soybean harvest. A front will move through this weekend with only limited showers. Dryness in recent weeks is also unfavorable for winter wheat, which could use some rain for establishment.

MUCH OF EUROPE STAYING WET

Scattered showers went through much of western and central Europe over the weekend, which will spread through much of the continent over the next few days with an upper-level low over the region that may last into next week. Wetness in the northwest is unfavorable for portions of France and Germany. Showers elsewhere will be more favorable for summer crop growth.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN BLACK SEA

It was largely dry in the Black Sea region over the long holiday weekend, though a disturbance in the Black Sea brought some showers to southern areas on Monday. A few waves of showers may move north from that system this week and will be sorely needed in a lot of areas. It may be too late for a lot of the wheat crop, but any rain would be helpful for summer crops. The isolated nature of the showers won’t help too many areas, though.

WAVE OF RAIN THROUGH AUSTRALIA

A front moving through Australia this week will bring a swath of rain through much of the primary ag areas. Western and southern areas will benefit and should help with planting and establishment. Another system will move into western areas this weekend with more. The transition to La Nina should bring more beneficial rainfall over the next few months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com