Quiet and Warm Conditions for US

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy rain in the Corn Belt and Southeast U.S., warm and dry conditions forecast for the Corn Belt, and potential for increased rainfall in Argentina and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

DRIER FOR THE MIDWEST

In the Midwest, recent heavy rain has helped ease the drought situation, increase water levels for the Mississippi River system, and moisten soils for winter wheat planting, but may have caused damage due to flooding and winds. At least two fronts will be moving through over the next several days, but they are not forecast to produce much in the way of precipitation, favorable for drying out soils for fieldwork. Though fronts will be moving through, they do not have access to much cool air, and temperatures should remain rather warm on most days, getting pushed back toward normal after a front goes through, but then rising above normal a day or two later.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Dry conditions are in the forecast in the Central and Southern Plains through next week while temperatures remain very warm to hot. That is not a good combination for wheat establishment, but it is for harvesting corn and soybeans. The next chance for rain would be next weekend at the earliest.

DRY DESPITE SEVERAL FRONTS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

At least two more fronts will move through the Northern Plains over the next several days, but neither of them are forecast to bring precipitation. They may bring breezy winds at times though, which will dry out the corn and soybean crops, and hustle them toward maturity. Even with the fronts moving through, temperatures should be mostly above normal, coming down only briefly behind a front before popping right back up again. Heat is expected by the middle of next week.

DELTA DRY AGAIN

Hurricane Helene brought a ton of rain into the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys, raising water levels on the Mississippi River and reducing drought for northern areas, but causing some flooding and potential quality reductions to mature crops. Dry conditions are forecast through next week, though we will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend that could bring some impacts to the region.

SOUTHEAST ALLOWED TO DRY OUT AFTER HELENE

Hurricane Helene caused horrific flooding in parts of the Southeast late last week, causing some damage to cotton in Georgia and some corn and soybean acres in the Carolinas, though the worst of it occurred in the southern Appalachians where whole towns were washed away. Helene’s remnants left on Tuesday and the region will be much drier for the rest of the week. We will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this week that could bring at least some rain back into the region going into the weekend.

CENTRAL BRAZIL HOPING FOR SYSTEM NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers are falling in central Brazil but they continue to be spotty for the next week. The late start of significant rain is causing a slow start to soybean planting, which will have a more significant impact for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops that will be planted in early 2025. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks, which continues this week with another front moving through with good rainfall that dies out as it gets into central Brazil. Another of these fronts is forecast for next week which may be more promising for rainfall in central Brazil later next week.

SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina with limited showers this week, but most areas have stayed dry, continuing the trend of dry conditions that has significantly delayed corn planting for western areas and caused some to abandon their winter wheat due to poor weather conditions. Far southern and eastern areas have fared better, but most areas are still dry. A more promising system may move through this weekend into next week with potential for widespread rainfall, but this system will not be enough to reverse the outstanding drought. More rain is going to be needed soon to stave off the significant late plantings and increase soil moisture for the limited crop that has already been planted.

SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EUROPE

A system that has been moving through Europe with widespread rainfall this week is digging down into the Mediterranean with better rainfall for areas there into the southeast for the next few days. More systems are lining to move through the continent for next week as well. Soil moisture is much improved, though some areas have dealt with wetness and flooding that have caused issues for winter wheat planting and corn harvesting.

UNRELENTING DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have seen precipitation over the last couple of weeks, but Eastern Ukraine and western Russia have been very dry for months and the systems moving through Europe are not bringing the needed rainfall there for winter wheat planting. This continues to be the case for later this week and weekend with showers moving into western areas only to dry out before getting eastward. Though temperatures have been and continue to be quite warm, the risk of frost will increase throughout October, giving a very limited window for getting rainfall into the region for winter wheat to grow roots before the stronger freezes move in.

NEEDED RAIN MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA, BUT TURNING DRIER AGAIN

A system is moving through Australia this week, which has produced good rainfall for western areas. Showers may not be all that widespread across the east later this week, though, and some dryness concerns still exist. Drier conditions are forecast for next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com