Rain and Strong Storms Continue Into Next Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Continued heavy rain, flooding, and severe weather in the U.S., wet weather in western Europe, and dryness in the Black Sea, are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN STORMS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR MIDWEST

An upper-level trough will keep showers and thunderstorms going across the far eastern Midwest on Wednesday. Another system will approach the west on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms that will continue to spread eastward going through the weekend. A couple of other systems will move through next week with scattered showers as well. Short breaks between storm systems and rainfall have made it difficult for those yet to plant to finish up and flooding has been an issue in many areas, especially in the southwest. The recurrence of widespread rainfall by late this week will continue that threat for late planting and some flooded areas may not be replanted.

DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and severe weather went through the Central and Southern Plains over the holiday weekend and continued on Tuesday, including some large hail over HRW wheat areas on Tuesday. A leftover front across the south will continue to be active Wednesday. Another front will push into the region on Wednesday and slowly pivot around the area through the weekend, even lasting into next week. Every day should feature precipitation somewhere in the region through at least June 3, which is a good prospect for getting some precipitation into drier parts of the region, but could cause storm damage or flooding in some others.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will move through the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Isolated showers continue afterward into next week with a couple more systems moving through as well. Any heavy amounts are likely to be isolated, with more light to moderate rainfall across the region, which should leave enough holes for producers to continue planting while giving new seedlings some rainfall to continue growing.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR DELTA

A front remains in the southern end of the Delta and may produce some showers through Thursday. Additional fronts and systems will be close by starting Friday and lasting through next week, which gives at least northern areas more chances for rain. Southern areas may find that as well. Although some flooding potential is possible, the rain is overall favorable for developing crops.

ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Another system will slowly move through the Canadian Prairies through Friday and the storm track will try to move farther north again for this weekend and next week, which brings more opportunity for rain through the region. Temperatures should fluctuate between systems, but overall do not look particularly cold, which should limit potential for frosts, though some cooler temperatures may slide through eastern portions of the region later next week.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR BRAZIL

Scattered showers went through southern areas of Brazil over the weekend, including some safrinha corn areas. Dry weather continues through next week, which will help flooded areas in the south to recover a bit, though that will take a lot of time.

COOL AND DRY IN ARGENTINA

Cold and dry conditions over the weekend produced widespread frosts in Argentina, which is unfavorable for winter wheat planting. The dryness continues to favor corn and soybean harvest. A front will move through this weekend with only limited showers. Dryness in recent weeks is also unfavorable for winter wheat, which could use some rain for establishment.

MUCH OF EUROPE STAYING WET

Scattered showers continue through much of Europe over the next few days with an upper-level low over the region that may last into next week. Wetness in the northwest is unfavorable for portions of France and Germany. Showers elsewhere will be more favorable for summer crop growth.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN BLACK SEA

A disturbance in the Black Sea will bring a few waves of showers north over the next few days, which is sorely needed in a lot of areas. It may be too late for a lot of the wheat crop, but any rain would be helpful for summer crops. The isolated nature of the showers won’t help too many areas, though. The pattern may get more active mid-late next week with a couple of systems potentially moving through.

WAVE OF RAIN THROUGH AUSTRALIA

A front moving through Australia this week brought good showers to western areas Tuesday and will bring more to eastern areas through Friday. Another system may take shape for western areas this weekend that may get into eastern areas next week. Western and southern areas will benefit from the rain that should help with planting and establishment. The transition to La Nina should bring more opportunities for beneficial rainfall over the next few months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com