Rain Coming for Southwestern Plains

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Potential for meaningful showers in the southwestern Plains and a return to normal with good rainfall across South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

WARM AIR RETURNING TO MIDWEST

Cold air is being replaced by warmer air from west to east over the next two days in the Midwest. Another front will move into western areas on Friday or Saturday, but is forecast to produce very little rainfall and fizzle out before getting eastward. We could see a burst of isolated showers moving through the region early next week, but that appears to be it until next weekend. Conditions for harvest are still generally favorable, though areas that plant winter wheat would like to see more rain.

FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY

Increasing winds are bringing in warm air into the Central and Southern Plains Thursday and Friday, but could be a concern for spreading wildfires. A front and system will move in on Friday and finally bring some showers into the region, which could last through Monday with the heaviest rain in the southwest. Winter wheat and livestock producers would welcome the rain, and models have some spotty areas of 1 to 2 inches being possible.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front is moving into the Northern Plains on Thursday with isolated showers that could last into Saturday. Another pulse of isolated showers is possible early next week. Temperatures should generally be near or above normal into next week. Conditions are still good for harvest, though breezy winds at times could be a concern for wildfires in the dry conditions.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW

Water levels on the Mississippi River have become very low again, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next two weeks, restrictions could last a long time.

WET SEASON RAINS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in Central Brazil. The late start has caused soybean planting to be behind significantly. We will have to see if producers can make up the gap in soybean planting or if there will be a significant portion of the crop that is planted late. They have about two weeks. If it is late, the safrinha corn crop will be planted late as well, exposing more of it to the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for the remaining filling wheat.

MORE FRONTS WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

The weather pattern continues to be more active across Argentina with recent and forecast rain. Another burst exits on Thursday which had good coverage, bringing needed rain for corn planting and drought-stricken wheat. Another potential widespread rain event will move through early-to-mid next week. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks.

MORE RAIN FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Another big storm continues to send more impulses into Europe for the next few days with batches of rain that are heavier across the west and very dry in the east. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting. Rainfall elsewhere has been more beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment and the drier conditions in the east will allow some areas to recover from the wetness. Italy and the west are favored with additional rainfall next week, though chances are not as great as they were this week.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING SOME RAIN

Isolated showers may continue in eastern Ukraine and western Russia into the weekend with a system that has stalled out over the Black Sea. However, the drought situation continues to be very bad across the east despite the incoming rain. With colder air moving into the region, frosts are starting to become more common and closing the window on the potential for good root establishment before winter. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system moving through Australia Thursday and Friday is spreading rain across needed areas in the south, but it will be drier next week. Some areas of dryness are seeing improvements while others fall behind in rainfall, making for mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com