Rain Continues to Build Soil Moisture for Central US

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Areas of heavy rain moving through the Central U.S. and overall good weather in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

Waves of showers continue to move through the Midwest through early Wednesday, building soil moisture but disrupting the last of the harvest. After a few days’ break, another system will move through over the weekend while another moves through in the middle of next week, both of which will bring more rounds of rain. The active pattern continues to favor reducing drought and building soil moisture before winter. It should improve winter wheat conditions.

HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the last few days have brought a lot of meaningful rain to the Central and Southern Plains, boosting soil moisture and improving crop conditions for wheat, but causing flooding and disrupting remaining fieldwork. An upper-level low-pressure center will move into the Southwest on Wednesday, with showers building across the west for the end of the week which may include some heavy snow in Colorado. The low will move northeast through the region over the weekend.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system moving through western areas of the Northern Plains will bring some showers through Wednesday and could return over the weekend to eastern areas. After a brief cooldown, temperatures should return to being above normal by the end of the week. Another front is likely to push through early next week and may bring some showers as well.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS WILL GET A BUMP THIS WEEK AND NEXT

Water levels on the Mississippi River have been very low, but the recent and forecast rain is likely to bump up levels in the upper basin this week and the lower basin next week. The Mississippi River would need the Ohio Valley to get more rain to help bolster more long-term support, but will take the small bursts of help from the Missouri and Upper Mississippi Rivers as well.

WIDESPREAD RAIN THROUGH BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in Central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Soybean planting has reached the normal pace and the risk of significant late plantings of safrinha corn will now look to the potential for heavy rain at soybean harvest and corn planting. Otherwise, good growing conditions are currently found throughout most of the country. Southern areas got rainfall over the weekend and coming waves of showers from fronts moving up from Argentina continue to be awfully favorable for the time being.

A COUPLE MORE STORMS MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A pair of systems moved through Argentina over the weekend and Monday, producing scattered showers that favored drier areas in the south. Another will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with more scattered showers. Some additional spotty showers continue over the rest of the week before the next system moves in over the weekend. Overall favorable conditions continue to be present in the country, though another drier stretch will be possible after this last system moves through and the threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

DRIER THROUGH MOST OF EUROPE

Some showers continue over the Iberian Peninsula early this week. Showers may redevelop there and maybe France toward the end of the week as well. But the remainder of Europe is likely to be dry into early next week. The dryness is starting to be a problem again in the eastern half where soil moisture deficits are growing. The dryness had been favorable in the northwest, but some areas could use a little rain now, too.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Very limited showers moved through Australia over the weekend, but most areas have been dry for a while now and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, but the forecast is calling for light and spotty rainfall with these systems.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com