Several Systems Moving Through Middle of the Country

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Multiple systems moving through the Central U.S. with chances for heavy rain, an increase in soybean planting due to good weather in central Brazil, and a short drier stretch for Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS FOR MIDWEST

The pattern will start to get more active this week in the Midwest as a system moves through Tuesday through Thursday, another moves through over the weekend, and more are lining up to produce precipitation next week. While drought has been increasing over the last couple of months, the active pattern may help to reduce drought in some areas. However, turning the momentum will be tough to accomplish and this busier period will not eliminate drought or the concerns for building soil moisture before the ground freezes.

SEVERAL STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moving into the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday will be the start of a chain of disturbances and systems that should keep the region active through the middle of next week. That may increase soil moisture in the region, but the likelihood of getting into the southwestern Plains HRW wheat areas is a bit uncertain. The active pattern may be more disruptive to the end of the harvest, though.

NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EDGE OF SYSTEMS

Several storm systems will start to pass through or near the Northern Plains starting on Tuesday and continue through next week. That could bring in some needed precipitation but may result in some snow in some spots. Drought is not likely to be eliminated in the more active pattern, but some lucky areas that get hit multiple times could see soil moisture building. Temperatures will likely be fluctuating quite a bit in the more active pattern.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW DESPITE COMING RAIN

Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be extremely low, causing restrictions on transportation. The pattern is about to get much more active in the Mississippi River Basin, but there is widespread drought throughout most of it and it will be tough to turn around. Some small improvements to river levels will be possible, though.

CENTRAL BRAZIL CONTINUES TO SEE GOOD RAINFALL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, being favorable for further soybean planting and establishment. Reports from Mato Grosso of rapid planting progress have meant that producers there have almost caught up to the normal pace and the continued good weather should allow that to persist this week as well. The likelihood of a significant portion of the crop being planted late has fallen dramatically. Southern areas are going through a drier period, with more limited showers over the next two weeks. Conditions there may fall a bit, but they can handle a drier stretch as long as it does not last too long.

SHORT DRY STRETCH FOR ARGENTINA

Drier conditions over the weekend continue for most of this week in Argentina. Soil has gotten a big boost over the last few weeks, but that will be declining a little bit this week. However, the pattern looks to become more favorable again with showers starting in the west on Thursday and more systems moving through this weekend and next week, bringing periods of needed showers through. Corn establishment has gotten much better and soybean planting will start this week or next in mostly good conditions as well.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE

Heavy rain fell from northeast Spain to northwest Italy over the weekend, including over some areas that had flooding occur over the last couple of weeks. That has promoted poor conditions for fieldwork and winter grain establishment but has moistened soils quite a bit that could be a net benefit. A system continues to spin around Spain most of this week, which will help producers on the Iberian Peninsula see increasing soil moisture for their winter grains. More limited showers will cruise through the rest of the continent this week. The lack of heavy rain will be helpful in the northwest, but those in the east would still like to see some rain as it starts to dry out in more areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A front brought little precipitation to northeastern Australia over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A few systems will move through over the next couple of weeks, but with limited precipitation in the forecast. Some areas are doing well while others are too dry, creating mixed conditions for filling wheat and canola. With harvest starting up in the north, the time for rain to be beneficial is coming to an end but would help the coming cotton and sorghum crops that will be planted in November.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com