Showers Show Signs of Becoming More Isolated Across Central Brazil

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Models show rain showers becoming more isolated across central Brazil over the next few days while dry conditions remain likely for Argentina through this weekend. Additionally, heavy rain showers remain possible in the south-central U.S. through early this weekend. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Wednesday.

WARMER TEMPERATURES REDUCING SNOWPACK IN THE MIDWEST

While warmer temperatures are returning to the area, wintry precipitation still managed to tag eastern areas on Tuesday. Additional rainfall is expected through Thursday before a brief period of mostly dry conditions returns Friday. The next round of precipitation will tag eastern areas later this weekend before mostly dry conditions return early next week. Above- to well-above-normal temperatures are expected through this weekend and northern areas could see temperatures rise to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Warm temperatures and rainfall will likely lead to a reduction in snowpack for many areas.

HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warmer air started moving into the area on Monday and periods of warmer temperatures will continue across much of the area into this weekend, but portions of the High Plains, like western Kansas and western Texas, will be closer to normal. Recent rainfall has likely helped improve drought conditions in eastern Texas. One more round of rain is possible by the end of the week and early this weekend before conditions dry out for early next week. This week’s precipitation should be favorable for increasing soil moisture for areas with dormant wheat.

SNOWPACK REDUCTION LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Mostly dry conditions will continue through this weekend as systems largely pass by to the south and east of the region. Above-normal temperatures will also continue through the end of January which will lead to mild conditions for livestock. The warmer temperatures will likely reduce the snowpack through the next week as well.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TAG THE SOUTHERN DELTA

Several rounds of rain remain likely through this weekend, melting any snow. Heavy rain is likely and some areas of flooding are possible in southern areas. Water levels along the Mississippi River will receive a boost and increase transportation for at least a little while. Temperatures will continue to be above normal throughout the rest of this week as well. Drier conditions will finally return by late this weekend into early next week.

SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

While showers have been a bit more widespread across central Brazil over the past few days, they may become more isolated through the second half of this week. The more isolated showers may allow for harvest progress to continue but for soybeans that are still maturing, more rainfall is beneficial. Any rain showers will also benefit soil moisture for safrinha corn planting which should start up shortly. Precipitation is also trending to be below normal for central and southern Brazil through next week as more widespread showers shift into northern Brazil.

GROWING CONCERN OF STRESS ON SOYBEAN CROP IN ARGENTINA

Conditions started to trend drier last week and there will not be much of a relief in dry conditions through this weekend as any notable precipitation will stay off to the west and south of the main growing areas. Corn and soybean conditions are likely to fall toward the end of the month as soil moisture may begin to deplete this week.

SOUTHERN EUROPE REMAINING DRY

Last week’s precipitation over the south was favorable for vegetative wheat in Spain and Italy, but the storm track will remain north through early next week and southern areas will turn drier. Temperatures will also continue to be above normal for many of the main growing areas through the rest of this week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.deutchman@dtn.com.