Showers This Week, More Next Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Recent heavy precipitation in the Plains and Midwest, a continued active pattern that will reduce drought, and overall good weather for now in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A system will move through the Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers. Another will likely move through Canada this weekend but may still bring a few showers through. A much larger storm could develop next week and bring more widespread precipitation to the region. The continued active pattern should help to reduce drought and boost soil moisture for winter wheat.

SMALL SYSTEM THIS WEEK, BIGGER ONE NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS

A small system will move through the Central and Southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday with some spotty rain. Recent rain has significantly increased soil moisture across the region, though areas of Colorado and New Mexico are buried in snow that will not be helpful for winter wheat. Temperatures will generally be above normal except for areas covered in snow. A much bigger system is likely next week that may mean a lot more precipitation. Temperatures are likely to take a dive after that system moves through next week.

LIMITED PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK FOR NORTHERN PLAINS, MORE NEXT WEEK

A system should bring some showers to the Northern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday and another system should produce more this weekend. But a much bigger storm should develop next week with heavier and more widespread precipitation. Temperatures will generally stay above normal until that bigger storm moves in next week. Overall drought continues to increase, though some areas are worse than others. That could change if the system next week indeed is a big one.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS BOOSTED BY RECENT RAINFALL, NEED MORE

Water levels on the Mississippi River have risen due to recent heavy rain across the Plains and Midwest. But for the River to have sustained improvements, more precipitation needs to fall in the Ohio Valley. Some good amounts went through over the weekend and the region will see additional systems moving through over the next couple of weeks that should help as well.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL THIS WEEK

Wet season showers continue in Central Brazil, being favorable for soybean establishment. A system will move through the south on Tuesday, but with limited showers. Another system is expected next week that could mean better coverage and amounts, but overall rainfall will be lower than normal over the next two weeks. Soil moisture is lower in some areas, but overall conditions are still mostly favorable.

DRY IN ARGENTINA, MORE RAIN THIS WEEKEND

A system moved through Argentina Sunday and Monday with scattered showers, but some areas were missed. Another system will move through this weekend into early next week with more widespread showers. Despite some more limited rainfall, overall favorable conditions continue to be present in most of the country. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season.

LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EUROPE THIS WEEK

Isolated showers fell over the Iberian Peninsula and across France over the weekend. Dryness elsewhere in Europe has been decreasing soil moisture as winter wheat starts to go dormant from north to south. Southeastern areas are worse off than other areas. A small system is drifting southwest through the continent early this week with scattered showers. A more long-lasting storm system may develop next week with more widespread waves of precipitation.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Very limited showers have been moving through Australia lately and soil moisture is falling. With harvest increasing for winter wheat and canola, that will help to promote fieldwork. But cotton and sorghum need more rain. A few systems will move through over the next week, but the forecast is calling for continued spotty rainfall outside of southeastern Queensland, which has a better chance for heavier showers.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com