Some Areas Staying Wet in Drier Pattern

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Quieter weather in the U.S. but not for all locations, recent wet weather in western Europe, and heat and dryness in the Black Sea, are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

UPPER LOW CONTINUING SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A system brought some heavy rain across Wisconsin Monday and another moving through the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday will bring more scattered showers. An upper-level low that will park itself in the region may continue showers around the Great Lakes into next week, but amounts after Wednesday look to be light and scattered, allowing many areas to dry out for the remaining planting or replanting. Temperatures will also be cooler than normal by a couple of degrees. Soil moisture remains high in most areas for early growth.

RAIN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN QUIETER PATTERN

Recent precipitation has been more widespread across the Central and Southern Plains and has gone through some of the drought areas with good rainfall amounts. A front will bring additional showers through Tuesday before a brief break develops. A stalled front in the region will produce showers and thunderstorms on Friday with potential continuing into early next week as it drifts south. Though some areas of flooding have and will continue to develop, and those left to plant may have some difficult conditions, the rainfall is good for early growth.

QUIETER PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Northern Plains Tuesday and brought some areas of heavier rain to North Dakota already. Eastern areas will see some thunderstorm clusters move through Tuesday. Drier weather is expected afterward for the rest of the week, though we may see some showers over southern areas this weekend. The drier weather is preferred in some areas of the eastern Dakotas for the remaining planting and crop condition. Temperatures will generally be warm west and cool east, but not cold enough for frosts.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR DELTA

Scattered showers and heavy rain moved through the Delta over the weekend and Monday and chances for more continue through Wednesday. Drier conditions should develop afterward, though a stalled front could produce more rainfall this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will trend mild to even a couple of degrees below normal, keeping stress low for developing crops.

DRIER PATTERN LIKELY DEVELOPING FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Isolated to scattered showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and another system that moved in on Monday continues on Tuesday with more widespread rainfall. Eastern areas may see showers continuing for another couple of days, but drier conditions are likely through the weekend. Recent showers may not have been enough to delay the rest of planting, but may have been an annoyance for those doing work. Soil moisture is much improved and early growth should find mostly good conditions. The storm track may shift to be more into the region by the middle of the month.

DRY CONDITIONS FOR BRAZIL

Dry conditions with increasing temperatures in Brazil continue to be unfavorable for safrinha corn areas that are heading more toward maturity. Southern areas are being allowed to continue to see flood waters recede and soils to dry out. Some winter wheat planting may start up, but the damage to infrastructure and continued wet soils probably keep this a slow prospect.

MOSTLY DRY IN ARGENTINA

Dry conditions in Argentina have continued to favor corn and soybean harvest, but not winter wheat planting and establishment. A couple of fronts could produce showers over southern areas later this week and weekend with more potential for next week, but generally look light and still unfavorable for wheat.

UPPER-LEVEL LOW, FRONT CONTINUED SHOWERS IN EUROPE

An upper-level low that has brought showers to central Europe recently is drifting eastward, but another front will push through the continent and settle west-east from northern Spain to western Ukraine later this week, producing a zone that will see scattered showers continuing into next week. Some of these areas will welcome the rain while others will not. Heat south of the front may be stressful for those that are drier.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY IN BLACK SEA

Hot and dry conditions continue to be a concern for both heading winter wheat and developing corn and sunflowers in the Black Sea region. A front will move into northwestern areas and stall this week, bringing favorable showers through. But most wheat areas will stay unfavorably hot and dry going into next week.

MORE FREQUENT FRONTS FOR AUSTRALIA

Precipitation has increased across Australia recently as more systems are moving through the country instead of south of it. A system will bring some rainfall to eastern areas Thursday, another front looks like it’ll go through western areas Thursday and Friday, with another over the weekend that is likely to get into eastern areas next week. With the switch to La Nina continuing to develop, the prospect for rainfall should continue to increase over the next few months, very favorable for crop establishment and development with time.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com