South America Sees Increasing Rain Chances

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — Potential for meaningful showers in the Southwestern Plains and a return to normal with good rainfall across South America are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

WARM AIR RETURNING TO MIDWEST

Cold air in the Midwest will move out from west to east over the next couple of days. Another front will move into Western areas on Friday or Saturday, but is forecast to produce very little rainfall, and fizzle out before getting eastward. We could see a burst of isolated showers moving through the region early next week, though. Conditions for harvest are still generally favorable, though areas that plant winter wheat would like to see more rain.

FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY

Though a burst of chilly air continues in the Central and Southern Plains early Wednesday, warmth returns Wednesday night with increasing winds that could be a concern for wildfires. A front and system will move in on Friday and finally bring some showers into the region, which could last through Monday. Winter wheat and livestock producers would welcome the rain, and models have some spotty areas of 1 to 2 inches possible, especially closer to the mountains.

WARM WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move into the Northern Plains on Thursday with isolated showers that could last into Saturday. Another pulse of isolated showers is possible early next week, but amounts look low and with sparse coverage. Temperatures should generally be near or above normal into next week, with some potential for cold moving in by the middle of next week. Conditions are still good for harvest, though breezy winds at times could be a concern for wildfires in the dry conditions.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS FORECAST TO STAY LOW

Water levels on the Mississippi River have become very low again, causing restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next two weeks, restrictions could last a long time.

WET SEASON RAINS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers continue in central Brazil. The late start has caused soybean planting to be behind significantly. We will have to see if producers can make up the gap in soybean planting or if there will be a significant portion of the crop that is planted late. They have about two weeks. If it is late, the safrinha corn crop will be planted late as well, exposing more of it to the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for the remaining filling wheat.

SEVERAL FRONTS WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

The weather pattern is more active across Argentina. Another burst moves through Wednesday and Thursday with good coverage, bringing needed rain for corn planting and drought-stricken wheat. More rain is needed, but the forecast is a favorable one for now with another potential widespread rain event for early-to-mid next week. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks.

MORE RAIN FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Another big storm is sending more impulses into Europe this week with batches of rain that are forecast to be heavier across the West and very dry in the East. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting. Rainfall elsewhere has been more beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment and the drier conditions in the East will allow some areas to recover from the wetness.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING SOME RAIN

Isolated showers may continue in eastern Ukraine and western Russia into the weekend with a system that has stalled out over the Black Sea. However, the drought situation continues to be very bad across the east despite the incoming rain. With colder air moving into the region, frosts are starting to become more common and closing the window on the potential for good root establishment before winter. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A couple of fronts and systems moving through Australia this week are spreading rain across much of the country, which will be useful for areas that get hit. Areas that get missed in the south would fall further behind.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com