Southwestern Plains Looking for Meaningful Rain

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A push of cold air through the U.S., potential for meaningful showers in the Southwestern Plains, and a return to normal across South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

COLD THEN WARM FOR MIDWEST

Cold air moving into the Midwest will be slow to move out from west to east later this week and contribute to some additional showers near the Great Lakes. Another front will move into Western areas on Friday or Saturday, but is forecast to produce very little rainfall, and fizzle out before getting eastward. We could see a burst of isolated showers moving through the region early next week, though. Conditions for harvest are still generally favorable, though areas that plant winter wheat would like to see more rainfall.

FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK

Though a burst of chilly air is moving into the Central and Southern Plains early this week, it will be short-lived with warmth returning Wednesday night. A front and system will move in on Friday and finally bring some showers into the region, which could last through Monday. Winter wheat and livestock producers would welcome the rain, but it doesn’t look heavy enough to combat much of the drought or be much of a concern for the continued harvest.

MOSTLY WARM AND DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move into the Northern Plains on Thursday with isolated showers that could last into Saturday. Another pulse of isolated showers is possible early next week, but overall rainfall amounts are very limited. Temperatures should generally be near or above normal into next week, with some potential for cold moving in by the middle of next week. Conditions are still good for harvest, though breezy winds at times could be a concern for wildfires in the dry conditions.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL

Continued dry conditions over the weekend have sent river levels on the Mississippi very low, which will cause restrictions on transportation. With very little precipitation forecast in the basin for the next two weeks, restrictions could last a long time.

WET SEASON RAINS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Wet season showers arrived in central Brazil late last week, which continues now for the season. The late start has caused soybean planting to be behind significantly. We will have to see if producers can make up the gap in soybean planting or if there will be a significant portion of the crop that is planted late. They have about two weeks. If it is late, the safrinha corn crop will be planted late as well, exposing more of it to the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for the remaining filling wheat.

SEVERAL FRONTS WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

The weather pattern is becoming more active across Argentina. Some rain started to move back in on Friday, another burst is moving through Tuesday, and another moves through Wednesday and Thursday, bringing needed rain for corn planting and drought-stricken wheat. More rain is needed, but the forecast is a favorable one for now with another potential widespread rain event in the middle of next week. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks.

MORE RAIN FOR EUROPE

Another big storm is sending more impulses into Europe this week with batches of rain that are forecast to be heavier across the west and very dry in the east. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting. Rainfall elsewhere has been more beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment and the drier conditions in the east will allow some areas to recover from the wetness.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING LIMITED RAIN

A system brought another band of heavy rain into Central Ukraine over the weekend but turned into much lighter showers across Eastern Ukraine and Western Russia. Some showers may continue there through the end of the week with a system that stalls out and spins over the Black Sea. However, the drought situation continues to be very bad across the east despite the incoming rain. With colder air moving into the region, frosts are starting to become more common and closing the window on the potential for good root establishment before winter. The region will hope for good precipitation over the winter to make up for the lost time this fall.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Isolated showers fell over parts of Australia this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A couple of fronts and systems will move through this week with potential for rain, which will be useful for areas that get hit. Areas that get missed in the south would fall further behind.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com