Storm Track Favors Corn Belt Next Week

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A continued active pattern for the U.S. and Canada, with a more consistent storm track through the Corn Belt possible, wet weather in western Europe, continued dryness in the Black Sea, dryness in central Brazil, and flooding rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ACTIVE STORM TRACK FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEST

The Midwest will be in the crosshairs of several storm systems through next week, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. While each system may not bring a ton of widespread rainfall on its own, when added together we should see pockets of heavy rain that would keep planting slower than normal in some areas. For those with seed in the ground, the consistent rains should be favorable.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Several systems will move through the Central and Southern Plains through next week. Rain chances are better away from the southwest, but there is potential for at least some there. The scattered and sporadic nature of the showers with these systems should lead to further planting windows being open, though some areas getting hit multiple times may find some difficulty.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING ACTIVE, TOO

Several systems will move through the Northern Plains over the next week. Some areas of heavy rain are forecast, but others will see little or none. Planting windows should be open for most areas, but others may find some difficulty, especially those that saw heavy rain last week. Temperatures will waffle around as well, but the trend is cooler than normal starting this weekend.

STORM TRACK MAY SHIFT NORTH FOR DELTA NEXT WEEK

Recent heavy rain has kept soils moist in the Delta for newly planted crops but made it more difficult for those that haven’t planted yet. However, the region has seen good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions so far this spring. A couple of disturbances will still go through the region through Saturday, but models are starting to back off on precipitation chances in the region for next week.

MORE SYSTEMS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The storm track is busy through the Canadian Prairies through the weekend, though the path from the northwest will mean more isolated to scattered showers and less widespread heavy rain. Still, it may be enough to produce delays should some areas get hit multiple times, or where showers linger. Temperatures will trend below normal starting Friday and likely continue through next week as the storm track probably shifts farther south.

FRONT CREATING MORE FLOODING IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front fizzled out in southern Brazil on Tuesday. But another front reloads over Rio Grande do Sul with heavy rain on Thursday and Friday, exacerbating the flooding there. The front will shift north again into southern safrinha growing areas for the weekend where it may bring some relieving rain. Central Brazil continues to be hot and dry though, and crop conditions continue to fall there.

WIDESPREAD FROSTS IN ARGENTINA

Cold and mostly dry conditions over Argentina continue through next week, though far northern areas will catch some rain at times. Overall, the potential for harvest progress continues to increase, though the colder conditions have been producing frosts, which isn’t welcome for late-developing crops or newly planted winter wheat.

STORM KEEPING WESTERN EUROPE WET

A system continues in western Europe for the rest of the week, keeping wetter conditions going for the UK and France. The system drifts eastward over the weekend and early next week with plenty of widespread rain. Another system may move right behind it next week though, keeping western areas wet.

SOME SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA

A system in the Black Sea will keep showers in far southern Russia and southeastern Ukraine for the next couple of days, a helpful sign for the drier soils there. Colder temperatures have meant frost in central Russia and have been close in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia as well, which may have produced some limited damage. The cooler air continues in the region this week but will rise this weekend. A system moving through next week may also bring some rain chances.

QUIETER WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Dry conditions are in place for most of Australia for the next week. While planting conditions have been pretty smooth, establishment weather hasn’t been all that great outside of New South Wales. The hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino fades and La Nina takes over in the next couple of months.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com