Stressful Heat, Areas of Dryness Concerning

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A change in the pattern toward hot this weekend, but with limited showers for the south and east, wet weather in parts of Europe, and limited relief for the Black Sea are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

HEAT INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A system is moving across the Midwest Thursday, bringing some rainfall and potential severe weather. The pattern gets more active this weekend for western areas, with a front moving into and stalling there through much of next week. Eastern areas are less likely to see rainfall but could see some as models disagree. Temperatures will waffle with the system moving through, but will be much more consistently hot starting Sunday, which could start to stress areas that do not receive rain, particularly across the east.

HOT AND SHOWERY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system is moving through the Midwest but may develop some showers and thunderstorms across Kansas and adjacent areas Thursday anyway. A much larger system will push a front into the region on Friday and Saturday and stall, with widespread precipitation forecast over the weekend and through next week, especially north. Overall, the rainfall should be mostly helpful for developing corn and soybeans but could be a hindrance for maturing and harvesting wheat at times. The rainfall will be needed with warmer temperatures returning to the area, which will be very hot when showers and clouds are not occurring beginning this weekend.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system continues with isolated showers in the Northern Plains early Thursday. A larger system will move into the region on Friday and its front will stall out in or near the region, waffling around all of next week. That will bring rounds of heavy rain and severe storms through next week, which may produce some flooding in some parts of the region.

QUIETER, HOTTER IN THE DELTA

Drier weather is likely in the Delta through Saturday, but we may see moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico produce showers and thunderstorms in the region starting Sunday. Any rainfall right now looks to be light and spotty. Temperatures will start to rise again by the end of the week, likely being hot and stressful, especially if showers do not develop.

COOL AND RAINY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A larger system moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday and brings more widespread precipitation through the region through the weekend. The storm track will be near or through the region for next week, with multiple disturbances being possible to bring showers through, resulting in some areas of moderate to heavy rain. Despite some issues with wetness, especially in the east, seeding is almost complete and crops have plenty of soil moisture for early growth in most areas. Cooler temperatures will go along with the active pattern starting on Sunday and slight chances for frost exist if skies can clear and winds go calm between systems.

RAIN COMING BACK TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Dry conditions with warm temperatures are helping safrinha corn to mature in Brazil, but are not favorable for the portion of the crop that is still immature. Dryness has been allowing southern areas to recover from flooding as well. A front moving into the south this weekend will produce rain into next week. That is not favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where they still need time to dry out more, but will be for any showers that can move north for immature safrinha corn.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Winter wheat would like to see some rain falling in Argentina to help with planting and establishment. A front will move through the country on Friday. The front will have limited rainfall but systems that follow behind it could offer some additional moisture going into the second half of the month. Colder air will become a possibility by late next week, being unfavorable for wheat establishment.

MORE RAIN FOR NORTHWESTERN EUROPE

A system is pushing through southeastern Europe with needed showers for Thursday. This will bring brief relief to hot temperatures there, but eastern areas will find additional warmth returning over the weekend. An upper-level low-pressure center will move into northwestern Europe Thursday and bring more unfavorable rainfall to the UK, France, and parts of Germany that have not had many breaks in the wet pattern that has been in place for months. Another extension of this low-pressure center moves through early next week with more showers there as well.

LIMITED RELIEF FOR BLACK SEA

A front is being pushed eastward through the Black Sea region by a system on Thursday and more showers will move through over the weekend into early next week. Meaningful rainfall is forecast for parts of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, which is needed for heading wheat and developing corn and sunflowers, though wheat is largely out of time to benefit in most areas. Hot and largely dry conditions there have been damaging. Though temperatures will take a small reprieve with the system, they will increase again next week while it dries out again, a poor prospect for corn and sunflowers.

GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIA

A system will be weak as it gets into eastern Australia with only limited showers through Friday. However, most areas in the east have seen favorable rainfall in recent weeks as have western areas, good enough for mostly good establishment conditions for winter wheat and canola. Though not especially wet this week, the change to La Nina should favor increasing rainfall for eastern areas of the country over the next few months. There are several chances for rain next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com