Strong Cold Front Moving Through This Weekend

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) — A strong cold front but a largely dry forecast for most of the U.S., and increased rainfall across South America are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

STRONG FRONT FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A front will move through the Midwest this weekend, bringing showers to the Great Lakes into early next week, as well as a burst of colder air that could linger for a few days before the warmth returns, especially in the east. Conditions are mostly favorable for harvest, but not for winter wheat establishment in some areas that missed out on Helene’s rainfall two weeks ago.

LARGELY DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm and almost completely dry conditions continue across the Central and Southern Plains through most of next week, though a brief burst of colder air will move through early next week. Overall conditions are favorable for corn and soybean harvest, but poor for winter wheat establishment and they need rain. A system could move into the region late next week and models are trying to figure out if it will bring a burst of cooler and/or significant precipitation.

MOSTLY WARM AND DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Mostly warm and dry weather is forecast in the Northern Plains through most of next week, though a quick burst of cooler air will move through Sunday to Tuesday. Conditions continue to be favorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest. A system could move through late next week and weekend and models are trying to figure out if it will bring a burst of cooler air or significant precipitation.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL

Largely dry weather continues in the Delta region for the next couple of weeks, favorable for harvest. That is not the case for water levels on the Mississippi River, which had a very good boost due to Helene, but are forecast to drop low again next week, with a potential return to restrictive conditions for transportation.

WET SEASON RAINS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers started to move into central Brazil on Thursday as the start of the wet season finally got underway, about two weeks late. Scattered showers will continue here through next week. The late start has caused soybean planting to be behind. It remains to be seen if producers can make up the gap or if there will be a significant portion of the crop that is planted late. If it is, the safrinha corn crop will likely be planted late as well, exposing more of it to the dry season in 2025. Southern Brazil has had much better weather for corn and soybean planting as well as for filling wheat.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH ARGENTINA

The weather pattern is becoming more active across Argentina. In addition to the rain that fell earlier this week, several chances will occur for the next couple of weeks. A front will move through southern areas Friday, a system moves through early next week, and another comes through mid-late next week. Showers are expected to come in streaks, but producers need this to be heavy, soaking rain to reduce the drought and increase corn planting. The addition of the streaks could mean some areas get the rain they need while some others will be left wanting. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until November, but there could be issues with that if drought is not significantly reduced over the next couple of weeks.

MORE SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE

A system continues to move eastward through Europe with showers Friday. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting. Rainfall elsewhere has been more beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment. Additional waves of showers are likely to go through this weekend and next week, but they may not be as widespread as recent rainfall. The western half of the continent is favored for the heaviest rainfall, which may continue to be a hindrance.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION HOPING FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND

Western Ukraine continues to benefit from systems moving in from Europe, producing good rainfall for winter wheat establishment. Eastern Ukraine and western Russia have had a terrible go with hot and dry conditions for months with intense drought in most areas. A system moving in Friday will try to produce more widespread showers for eastern areas this weekend into early next week and some showers may linger as an upper-level low sits over the Black Sea next week. This may all be too late though, as cooler air works in and starts to produce frosts in western Russia this weekend and frosts and freezes will start to become more common throughout the month. The window for planting with good growing conditions is quickly shutting down.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Light and spotty showers have been moving through Australia this week, though some areas in Queensland had more beneficial showers. Dryness has been an issue in parts of the growing regions this spring, especially in the southeast. Chances for rain may be a little better next week, mostly in the east.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com